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Thu, Nov 12, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Thu, Nov 12 · results through Wed, Nov 11

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 97% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 94% in the West.

Biggest moves since Wed, Nov 11: Utah Mammoth −5, Buffalo Sabres −4, Nashville Predators +4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes3011597%0
New Jersey Devils2610686%0
Tampa Bay Lightning2610583%+2
Ottawa Senators2410277%0
Boston Bruins279965%0
Montréal Canadiens269963%−1
Florida Panthers229760%−1
Washington Capitals209451%−1
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
New York Rangers239346%+4
Buffalo Sabres199343%−4
Detroit Red Wings178928%0
Pittsburgh Penguins168725%+1
Columbus Blue Jackets148724%0
New York Islanders188623%−1
Philadelphia Flyers168621%+2
Toronto Maple Leafs18808%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights2810894%+3
Minnesota Wild3010891%0
Edmonton Oilers3110386%0
Colorado Avalanche2410382%0
Utah Mammoth219971%−5
Dallas Stars229969%+1
Nashville Predators259659%+4
Anaheim Ducks219357%−2
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues189348%+1
Los Angeles Kings128942%+1
Winnipeg Jets199038%+1
Seattle Kraken198733%0
Calgary Flames178217%−3
San Jose Sharks187910%0
Chicago Blackhawks9733%0
Vancouver Canucks7671%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Nov 12, 7:51 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 49 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 37.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C49 points20 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Leon DraisaitlEDM · C37 points20 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Evan BouchardEDM · D33 points20 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Kirill KaprizovMIN · L32 points20 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C30 points19 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

2026-27 · last 10 games against the 10 before

Recent form

Jamie Drysdale has the largest rise, from 0 to 9 points; Connor McDavid the largest fall, from 31 to 18 points.

Rising

  1. Jamie DrysdalePHI · D · 21 games0 points in the 10 games from Oct 1 to Oct 19, then 9 in the last 10, from Oct 21 to Nov 11: up 9 points.
  2. Adam FoxNYR · D · 20 games9 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 17, then 13 in the last 10, from Oct 19 to Nov 11: up 4 points.
  3. Pavel DorofeyevNYR · R · 20 games4 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 17, then 8 in the last 10, from Oct 19 to Nov 11: up 4 points.

Falling

  1. Connor McDavidEDM · C · 20 games31 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 22, then 18 in the last 10, from Oct 24 to Nov 11: down 13 points.
  2. Jack EichelVGK · C · 20 games18 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 17, then 8 in the last 10, from Oct 20 to Nov 11: down 10 points.
  3. Vasily PodkolzinEDM · R · 20 games12 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 22, then 3 in the last 10, from Oct 24 to Nov 11: down 9 points.
How recent form is counted — games already played, not a forecast
Points in each skater’s last 10 regular-season games against the 10 before, the largest rises and falls. A skater needs at least 20 games this season to appear: a display threshold, not a test of significance.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Lineup

    Blackhawks Vs Sabres: Projected Lineup, How To Watch, & More Ahead Of Game 19 (external site)

    The Hockey News - Chicago Blackhawks via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Buffalo Sabres, Chicago Blackhawks

  2. Injury

    Maple Leafs Call Up Brendan Brisson, Move Colton Sissons To Injured Reserve (external site)

    The Hockey News - Toronto Maple Leafs via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Colton Sissons, Brendan Brisson, Toronto Maple Leafs

  3. Rumour

    Flyers Respond to Trade Chatter with Strong Performance, But Oilers Still Win (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Edmonton Oilers, Philadelphia Flyers

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured