Fri, Oct 2, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

6:30 PM ETWin chanceNYRNew York Rangers41%DETDetroit Red Wings59%6:30 PMNew York RangersNYR · 34–39–9Rated #27NYR 41%59% DETDetroit Red WingsDET · 41–31–10Rated #16
7:00 PM ETWin chanceWSHWashington Capitals37%CARCarolina Hurricanes63%7:00 PMWashington CapitalsWSH · 43–30–9Rated #22WSH 37%63% CARCarolina HurricanesCAR · 53–22–7Rated #1
8:00 PM ETWin chanceBOSBoston Bruins45%WPGWinnipeg Jets55%8:00 PMBoston BruinsBOS · 45–27–10Rated #24BOS 45%55% WPGWinnipeg JetsWPG · 35–35–12Rated #21
9:00 PM ETWin chanceSTLSt. Louis Blues43%DALDallas Stars57%9:00 PMSt. Louis BluesSTL · 37–33–12Rated #20STL 43%57% DALDallas StarsDAL · 50–20–12Rated #10
10:00 PM ETWin chanceANAAnaheim Ducks41%VGKVegas Golden Knights59%10:00 PMAnaheim DucksANA · 43–33–6Rated #17ANA 41%59% VGKVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 39–26–17Rated #4

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Fri, Oct 2 · results through Thu, Oct 1

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 81% in the East; Colorado Avalanche at 82% in the West.

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs
Carolina Hurricanes	1	105	81%
Ottawa Senators	0	104	79%
Tampa Bay Lightning	0	97	61%
Philadelphia Flyers	1	97	60%
New Jersey Devils	2	97	58%
Columbus Blue Jackets	2	95	53%
Montréal Canadiens	2	95	52%
Buffalo Sabres	0	94	51%

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs
Pittsburgh Penguins	2	94	49%
Florida Panthers	3	94	49%
Detroit Red Wings	0	93	48%
Washington Capitals	0	92	44%
Boston Bruins	2	91	41%
New York Islanders	0	88	31%
New York Rangers	2	86	26%
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	82	17%

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs
Colorado Avalanche	2	104	82%
Vegas Golden Knights	2	103	80%
Edmonton Oilers	3	99	70%
Minnesota Wild	2	97	64%
Dallas Stars	0	96	60%
Anaheim Ducks	0	95	59%
Utah Mammoth	2	95	56%
Los Angeles Kings	0	94	56%

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs
St. Louis Blues	0	93	51%
Winnipeg Jets	0	91	45%
San Jose Sharks	2	89	40%
Nashville Predators	0	88	35%
Seattle Kraken	2	87	34%
Calgary Flames	0	84	24%
Chicago Blackhawks	0	83	22%
Vancouver Canucks	2	83	22%

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 2, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Evan Bouchard leads with 8 points, ahead of Connor McDavid at 7.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Lineup
Predators Reassign Ryan Ufko to Milwaukee (external site)
The Hockey News - Nashville Predators via Yahoo Sports · Oct 2, 4:12 PM ET
In this story: Ryan Ufko, Nashville Predators
Lineup
(10-2-26) Blues-Stars Gameday Lineup (external site)
The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports · Oct 2, 12:57 PM ET
In this story: Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues
Transaction
Who is Tristan Luneau, and Why did the Anaheim Ducks Sign Him to a Huge Extension? (external site)
The Hockey News - Anaheim Ducks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 2, 11:05 AM ET
In this story: Tristan Luneau, Anaheim Ducks
Also reported by: The Hockey News - Anaheim Ducks via Yahoo Sports (external site), NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Mackie Samoskevich−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured