Wed, Oct 28, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:30 PM ETWin chancePHIPhiladelphia Flyers40%WSHWashington Capitals60%7:30 PMPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 3–7–4Rated #20PHI 40%60% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 6–4–0Rated #22
8:30 PM ETWin chanceCGYCalgary Flames38%EDMEdmonton Oilers62%8:30 PMCalgary FlamesCGY · 5–6–0Rated #29CGY 38%62% EDMEdmonton OilersEDM · 8–2–2Rated #10
9:00 PM ETWin chanceNJDNew Jersey Devils41%COLColorado Avalanche59%9:00 PMNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 8–4–0Rated #6NJD 41%59% COLColorado AvalancheCOL · 6–5–1Rated #4
10:00 PM ETWin chanceTORToronto Maple Leafs45%SEASeattle Kraken55%10:00 PMToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 7–5–2Rated #28TOR 45%55% SEASeattle KrakenSEA · 7–4–1Rated #27

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Wed, Oct 28 · results through Tue, Oct 27

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 96% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 90% in the West.

Biggest moves since Tue, Oct 27: Boston Bruins −5, Buffalo Sabres +5, Ottawa Senators −5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	22	114	96%	0
New Jersey Devils	16	103	79%	+4
Tampa Bay Lightning	15	102	74%	−1
Ottawa Senators	16	101	71%	−5
Florida Panthers	16	97	58%	+3
Boston Bruins	19	96	56%	−5
Montréal Canadiens	16	96	53%	+1
Buffalo Sabres	13	94	46%	+5

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Washington Capitals	12	93	46%	−1
Detroit Red Wings	13	93	42%	−1
Pittsburgh Penguins	11	91	38%	−1
New York Rangers	15	89	33%	−2
Columbus Blue Jackets	10	89	31%	−1
New York Islanders	14	88	30%	+2
Philadelphia Flyers	10	87	27%	+1
Toronto Maple Leafs	16	85	19%	−1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Minnesota Wild	20	107	90%	+2
Vegas Golden Knights	19	106	90%	+3
Edmonton Oilers	18	101	81%	+1
Colorado Avalanche	13	100	76%	+2
Utah Mammoth	16	100	74%	−1
Dallas Stars	15	99	70%	−3
St. Louis Blues	11	93	51%	0
Los Angeles Kings	8	90	46%	−3

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Anaheim Ducks	11	90	45%	−4
Seattle Kraken	15	88	39%	+2
Nashville Predators	13	89	37%	+1
Winnipeg Jets	11	88	34%	−3
Calgary Flames	10	84	27%	+2
San Jose Sharks	13	83	23%	−4
Chicago Blackhawks	8	79	11%	+2
Vancouver Canucks	7	73	5%	+2

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 28, 8:54 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 34 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 24.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Lineup
Penguins Announce Series Of Roster Moves On Wednesday (external site)
The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports · Oct 28, 4:14 PM ET
In this story: Pittsburgh Penguins
Lineup
Blackhawks F Oliver Moore looks for more growth after positive response to healthy scratch (external site)
Associated Press via Yahoo Sports · Oct 28, 2:28 PM ET
In this story: Oliver Moore, Chicago Blackhawks
Transaction
Are The Sabres Scrambling To Make A Big Splash In The Aftermath Of The Hellebuyck Trade? (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 28, 12:17 PM ET
In this story: Buffalo Sabres

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured