Mon, Nov 2, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:00 PM ETWin chanceVGKVegas Golden Knights52%BOSBoston Bruins48%7:00 PMVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 9–5–1Rated #2VGK 52%48% BOSBoston BruinsBOS · 10–4–1Rated #19
7:00 PM ETWin chanceDETDetroit Red Wings44%FLAFlorida Panthers56%7:00 PMDetroit Red WingsDET · 6–5–3Rated #13DET 44%56% FLAFlorida PanthersFLA · 8–4–2Rated #10
8:00 PM ETWin chanceCOLColorado Avalanche58%CHIChicago Blackhawks42%8:00 PMColorado AvalancheCOL · 8–5–1Rated #4COL 58%42% CHIChicago BlackhawksCHI · 4–9–1Rated #31
9:00 PM ETWin chanceCGYCalgary Flames47%SJSSan Jose Sharks53%9:00 PMCalgary FlamesCGY · 6–8–0Rated #28CGY 47%53% SJSSan Jose SharksSJS · 7–7–1Rated #30

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Mon, Nov 2 · results through Sun, Nov 1

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 97% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 91% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sun, Nov 1: New York Rangers −4, Washington Capitals −4, Anaheim Ducks +3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	26	115	97%	+1
New Jersey Devils	18	103	80%	+1
Tampa Bay Lightning	18	103	75%	0
Ottawa Senators	19	100	70%	−2
Florida Panthers	18	98	62%	+1
Montréal Canadiens	20	98	60%	+1
Boston Bruins	21	96	53%	0
Buffalo Sabres	17	95	52%	+1

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Washington Capitals	16	94	50%	−4
Detroit Red Wings	15	92	40%	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	12	89	33%	+1
New York Islanders	16	89	30%	+1
New York Rangers	15	88	28%	−4
Columbus Blue Jackets	10	87	27%	+1
Philadelphia Flyers	12	86	23%	+2
Toronto Maple Leafs	18	85	19%	0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Minnesota Wild	23	107	91%	+2
Edmonton Oilers	24	105	89%	+2
Vegas Golden Knights	19	104	88%	0
Colorado Avalanche	17	102	82%	0
Utah Mammoth	18	101	78%	−2
Dallas Stars	17	97	65%	0
St. Louis Blues	15	95	59%	0
Los Angeles Kings	10	91	49%	0

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Anaheim Ducks	13	89	44%	+3
Seattle Kraken	17	89	40%	0
Nashville Predators	15	89	38%	0
Calgary Flames	12	83	23%	0
Winnipeg Jets	11	84	22%	−3
San Jose Sharks	15	82	19%	0
Chicago Blackhawks	9	77	9%	0
Vancouver Canucks	7	71	3%	0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Nov 2, 7:50 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 39 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 28.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Lineup
Avalanche Recall Hard-Hitting Defenseman Ahead of Busy Stretch (external site)
The Hockey News - Colorado Avalanche via Yahoo Sports · Nov 2, 1:43 PM ET
In this story: Josh Manson, Keaton Middleton, Colorado Avalanche
Lineup
Blackhawks Vs Avalanche: Projected Lineup, How To Watch, & More Ahead Of Game 16 (external site)
The Hockey News - Chicago Blackhawks via Yahoo Sports · Nov 2, 1:28 PM ET
In this story: Chicago Blackhawks, Colorado Avalanche
Lineup
Penguins Re-Assign Forward Prospect To AHL (external site)
The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports · Nov 1, 11:23 PM ET
In this story: Pittsburgh Penguins

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured