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Sun, Oct 11, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

Live scores as of 5:34 PM ET; this page refreshes every minute while games are on.

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Sun, Oct 11 · results through Sat, Oct 10

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 90% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 88% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sat, Oct 10: Anaheim Ducks +6, Buffalo Sabres −4, Florida Panthers −4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes910990%+1
Ottawa Senators810480%+1
Tampa Bay Lightning810173%+3
Florida Panthers69656%−4
New Jersey Devils49554%+2
Buffalo Sabres49552%−4
Washington Capitals69452%+3
Columbus Blue Jackets49450%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Montréal Canadiens59349%+2
Pittsburgh Penguins79347%0
Detroit Red Wings39140%−1
New York Rangers89140%−2
Philadelphia Flyers28937%−3
Boston Bruins89037%+3
New York Islanders48627%−3
Toronto Maple Leafs78216%+2

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1010788%+2
Colorado Avalanche610481%−3
Edmonton Oilers910278%+2
Anaheim Ducks89970%+6
Utah Mammoth89969%+3
Minnesota Wild79867%+3
Dallas Stars59659%−1
Los Angeles Kings29455%0
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues59451%+2
Winnipeg Jets79144%−4
Nashville Predators68937%0
Seattle Kraken68731%+1
San Jose Sharks68628%−4
Vancouver Canucks48015%−2
Chicago Blackhawks28014%−2
Calgary Flames07914%−2

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 11, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 13 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 12.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C13 points5 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Evan BouchardEDM · D12 points5 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Jack EichelVGK · C12 points6 games (limited sample)
  4. 4William NylanderTOR · R11 points6 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C10 points5 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Lineup

    Flyers Make More Roster Moves in Latest Attempt to Course-Correct (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Philadelphia Flyers

  2. Injury

    William Nylander's 5-Point Masterpiece Powers Leafs Past Avalanche But Chris Tanev Injury Looms (external site)

    The Hockey News - Toronto Maple Leafs via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Sergei Bobrovsky, Chris Tanev, William Nylander, Auston Matthews, Colorado Avalanche, Toronto Maple Leafs

  3. Rumour

    Report: Canucks Are One Of A Few Teams Interested In Flames Forward Connor Zary (external site)

    The Hockey News - Vancouver Canucks via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Connor Zary, Calgary Flames, Vancouver Canucks

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured