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Wed, Nov 11, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Wed, Nov 11 · results through Tue, Nov 10

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 97% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 91% in the West.

Biggest moves since Tue, Nov 10: Florida Panthers +6, Los Angeles Kings −6, Columbus Blue Jackets −5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes3011597%0
New Jersey Devils2610686%−2
Tampa Bay Lightning2410481%0
Ottawa Senators2410277%−1
Boston Bruins279965%+1
Montréal Canadiens269964%+2
Florida Panthers229761%+6
Washington Capitals209452%+4
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Buffalo Sabres199447%0
New York Rangers219242%+1
Detroit Red Wings178928%−4
Columbus Blue Jackets148724%−5
Pittsburgh Penguins148724%0
New York Islanders188724%+1
Philadelphia Flyers158519%0
Toronto Maple Leafs18808%−2

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights2610691%−1
Minnesota Wild3010891%0
Edmonton Oilers2910386%0
Colorado Avalanche2410382%+2
Utah Mammoth2110176%−1
Dallas Stars229968%−2
Anaheim Ducks219459%0
Nashville Predators239555%+3
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues189347%+2
Los Angeles Kings128941%−6
Winnipeg Jets199037%+3
Seattle Kraken198733%0
Calgary Flames178320%0
San Jose Sharks177910%−1
Chicago Blackhawks9733%0
Vancouver Canucks7671%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Nov 11, 7:49 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 48 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 36.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C48 points19 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Leon DraisaitlEDM · C36 points19 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Kirill KaprizovMIN · L32 points20 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Evan BouchardEDM · D31 points19 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C30 points19 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

2026-27 · last 10 games against the 10 before

Recent form

Jamie Drysdale has the largest rise, from 0 to 9 points; Linus Karlsson the largest fall, from 7 to 3 points.

Rising

  1. Jamie DrysdalePHI · D · 20 games0 points in the 10 games from Sep 30 to Oct 17, then 9 in the last 10, from Oct 19 to Nov 9: up 9 points.
  2. Trevor ZegrasPHI · C · 20 games4 points in the 10 games from Sep 30 to Oct 17, then 10 in the last 10, from Oct 19 to Nov 9: up 6 points.
  3. Noah CatesPHI · L · 20 games0 points in the 10 games from Sep 30 to Oct 17, then 5 in the last 10, from Oct 19 to Nov 9: up 5 points.

Falling

  1. Linus KarlssonVAN · C · 20 games7 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 17, then 3 in the last 10, from Oct 20 to Nov 9: down 4 points.
  2. William NylanderTOR · R · 20 games13 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 19, then 9 in the last 10, from Oct 20 to Nov 10: down 4 points.
  3. Auston MatthewsTOR · C · 20 games16 points in the 10 games from Sep 29 to Oct 19, then 12 in the last 10, from Oct 20 to Nov 10: down 4 points.
How recent form is counted — games already played, not a forecast
Points in each skater’s last 10 regular-season games against the 10 before, the largest rises and falls. A skater needs at least 20 games this season to appear: a display threshold, not a test of significance.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Troy Terry, Returning from Hip Surgery, 'Likely' to make Season Debut Wednesday (external site)

    The Hockey News - Anaheim Ducks via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Troy Terry, Anaheim Ducks, Nashville Predators

  2. Injury

    Islanders News: Injured Isles nearing their return (external site)

    SB Nation via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: New York Islanders

  3. Rumour

    Rumor: Penguins' Rakell Rejected Trade To Blackhawks (external site)

    The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Keith Yandle, Rickard Rakell, Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured