ODDPUCK
Between seasonsProjections liveLatest sheet Sat, Apr 11, 2026

What the models see — not what happened

Where OddPuck disagrees with the standings — and what it expects to change.

How this is measured

The model rates Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do

BOS finished #8 in points and rates #24 by xG-Elo · every club shown

← Model rates lowerModel rates higher →
Rank by xG-Elo against rank by points, 32 clubs.Explore BOS

Extreme finishing is projected to move back toward average

2025-26 goals above expected against what the model keeps for 2026-27 at the same shot volume · 10 most extreme finishers

Anders Lee −13.0 −2.1Anthony Mantha +14.9 +2.8Full projection →
About these forecasts — projected finishing is not a result

The hollow marks are forecasts for next season at the same shot volume, not results. The share of a gap that survives is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, which is why the projections land part of the way back rather than on zero. Shot volume itself is projected separately and is not part of this figure, and a persistent gap means the skater beats what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured.

Final scores

Sun, Jun 14, 2026

Points leaders · projected totals over the remaining schedule

Full leaderboard

Team strength · xG-Elo

All 32

No games on the sheet for Thu, Aug 20, 2026. Here's the most recent slate with posted lines.

The latest sheetSat, Apr 11, 2026 · 15 games

Full sheet
Line
2.5
Proj
3.1
P(over)
58%
Line
2.5
Proj
3.0
P(over)
57%
Line
3.5
Proj
3.0
P(over)
35%
Line
2.5
Proj
2.9
P(over)
55%
Line
3.5
Proj
2.6
P(over)
28%
Line
3.5
Proj
2.6
P(over)
27%

Top six projected shot totals from that slate — sorted by projection, the way every sheet is.

Sample sheet15 games · Sat, Apr 11, 2026Players1481 skaters · 174 goaliesTeams32 clubsCap efficiencyscoring per $1M of cap hit

NHL · Shots on goal

Distributions,
not picks.

OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.

The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line

Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modeled probability. Positional, never a verdict.