Wed, Oct 28, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:30 PM ETWin chancePHIPhiladelphia Flyers40%WSHWashington Capitals60%7:30 PMPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 3–7–3Rated #18PHI 40%60% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 6–4–0Rated #21
8:30 PM ETWin chanceCGYCalgary Flames38%EDMEdmonton Oilers62%8:30 PMCalgary FlamesCGY · 5–6–0Rated #30CGY 38%62% EDMEdmonton OilersEDM · 8–2–2Rated #9
9:00 PM ETWin chanceNJDNew Jersey Devils40%COLColorado Avalanche60%9:00 PMNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 7–4–0Rated #7NJD 40%60% COLColorado AvalancheCOL · 6–5–1Rated #4
10:00 PM ETWin chanceTORToronto Maple Leafs45%SEASeattle Kraken55%10:00 PMToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 7–5–2Rated #29TOR 45%55% SEASeattle KrakenSEA · 7–4–1Rated #27

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Tue, Oct 27 · results through Mon, Oct 26

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 96% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 88% in the West.

Biggest moves since Mon, Oct 26: Detroit Red Wings +5, New York Rangers −4, Toronto Maple Leafs −4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	20	113	96%	0
Ottawa Senators	16	102	76%	0
New Jersey Devils	14	102	75%	0
Tampa Bay Lightning	15	102	75%	0
Boston Bruins	19	97	61%	+1
Florida Panthers	14	96	55%	+1
Montréal Canadiens	14	95	52%	0
Washington Capitals	12	93	47%	0

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Detroit Red Wings	13	93	43%	+5
Buffalo Sabres	11	92	41%	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	11	91	39%	+1
New York Rangers	15	89	35%	−4
Columbus Blue Jackets	8	89	32%	0
New York Islanders	12	87	28%	0
Philadelphia Flyers	9	86	26%	0
Toronto Maple Leafs	16	85	20%	−4

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Minnesota Wild	18	107	88%	0
Vegas Golden Knights	17	104	87%	0
Edmonton Oilers	18	101	80%	−2
Utah Mammoth	16	101	75%	−1
Colorado Avalanche	13	100	74%	0
Dallas Stars	15	100	73%	0
St. Louis Blues	11	93	51%	0
Los Angeles Kings	8	92	49%	+3

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Anaheim Ducks	10	91	49%	0
Winnipeg Jets	11	90	37%	−1
Seattle Kraken	15	88	37%	0
Nashville Predators	12	90	36%	−1
San Jose Sharks	13	85	27%	−1
Calgary Flames	10	84	25%	+3
Chicago Blackhawks	6	77	9%	0
Vancouver Canucks	5	71	3%	−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 27, 8:58 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 34 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 24.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Injury
Senators Suffer Yet Another Injury In Tight 4-1 Loss In Vegas (external site)
The Hockey News - Ottawa Senators via Yahoo Sports · Oct 28, 1:58 AM ET
In this story: Ottawa Senators
Injury
Varlamov Gets First Win Since Injury, Islanders Finally Beat Predators In Nashville With 4-3 Shootout Win (external site)
The Hockey News - New York Islanders via Yahoo Sports · Oct 27, 11:21 PM ET
In this story: Semyon Varlamov, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders
Injury
Carter Hart injury update: Golden Knights goalie out after leaving morning skate (external site)
USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports · Oct 27, 8:50 PM ET
In this story: Carter Hart, Vegas Golden Knights
Also reported by: Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Las Vegas Golden Knights via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured