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Fri, Nov 6, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Fri, Nov 6 · results through Thu, Nov 5

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 97% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 92% in the West.

Biggest moves since Thu, Nov 5: Detroit Red Wings −6, Nashville Predators +6, Anaheim Ducks +5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes2811497%+1
New Jersey Devils2210584%+1
Tampa Bay Lightning2210480%+1
Ottawa Senators2110275%0
Boston Bruins259863%+5
Florida Panthers209861%0
Montréal Canadiens239859%+4
Buffalo Sabres179446%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Washington Capitals169345%0
New York Rangers199037%+4
Detroit Red Wings179136%−6
Columbus Blue Jackets148933%+3
New York Islanders168828%−3
Pittsburgh Penguins128725%−5
Philadelphia Flyers128417%−4
Toronto Maple Leafs188315%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Minnesota Wild2510892%0
Vegas Golden Knights2410690%+2
Edmonton Oilers2510385%−3
Utah Mammoth2110280%−2
Colorado Avalanche2010177%−4
Dallas Stars209867%−2
St. Louis Blues169351%−1
Los Angeles Kings129250%−1
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Anaheim Ducks179250%+5
Nashville Predators199347%+6
Seattle Kraken198939%−1
Winnipeg Jets158729%+2
Calgary Flames158424%0
San Jose Sharks158012%−1
Chicago Blackhawks9744%−1
Vancouver Canucks7692%−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Nov 6, 7:47 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 44 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 31.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C44 points17 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Leon DraisaitlEDM · C31 points17 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Evan BouchardEDM · D30 points17 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C27 points17 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Kirill KaprizovMIN · L26 points17 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Former Maple Leafs Goalie James Reimer Placed On Waivers Following Difficult Rangers Debut (external site)

    The Hockey News - Toronto Maple Leafs via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: James Reimer, Los Angeles Kings, New York Rangers, Toronto Maple Leafs

  2. Transaction

    Islanders add Ben Hutton on tryout contract for defensive depth (external site)

    NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Ben Hutton, New York Islanders

  3. Transaction

    Former Sabres Goalie Quickly Placed On Waivers By New Team (external site)

    The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Buffalo Sabres

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured