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Mon, Nov 9, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Mon, Nov 9 · results through Sun, Nov 8

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 97% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 92% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sun, Nov 8: Winnipeg Jets +5, Boston Bruins +3, New Jersey Devils +3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes3011597%0
New Jersey Devils2610789%+3
Tampa Bay Lightning2410481%−3
Ottawa Senators2310377%0
Boston Bruins279965%+3
Montréal Canadiens259862%+1
Florida Panthers209655%−1
Washington Capitals189348%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Buffalo Sabres199447%−2
New York Rangers219242%+1
Detroit Red Wings179032%+1
Columbus Blue Jackets148829%+1
New York Islanders178725%0
Pittsburgh Penguins148724%−2
Philadelphia Flyers138416%0
Toronto Maple Leafs188111%−1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights2610692%+1
Minnesota Wild2810791%0
Edmonton Oilers2710386%−1
Colorado Avalanche2210280%−1
Utah Mammoth2110177%−1
Dallas Stars229970%−1
Anaheim Ducks219459%+1
Nashville Predators219452%−1
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Los Angeles Kings129147%−1
St. Louis Blues169245%−1
Winnipeg Jets178934%+5
Seattle Kraken198733%−1
Calgary Flames178320%+1
San Jose Sharks15789%−1
Chicago Blackhawks9733%0
Vancouver Canucks7691%−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Nov 9, 7:51 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 47 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 34.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C47 points18 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Leon DraisaitlEDM · C34 points18 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Kirill KaprizovMIN · L31 points19 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Evan BouchardEDM · D31 points18 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C30 points18 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Penguins Recall McGroarty Ahead Of Sunday Tilt In Anaheim In Wake Of Another Forward Injury (external site)

    The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Rutger McGroarty, Pittsburgh Penguins

  2. Rumour

    Ex-Sabres Forward Already Emerges As Trade Candidate With New Team (external site)

    The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Buffalo Sabres

  3. Transaction

    Former Sabres Goalie Suddenly Terminates Contract With New Team (external site)

    The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Buffalo Sabres

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured