Mon, Oct 19, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:00 PM ETWin chanceANAAnaheim Ducks48%NYRNew York Rangers52%7:00 PMAnaheim DucksANA · 4–3–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #15ANA 48%52% NYRNew York RangersNYR · 6–3–1Rated #24
7:00 PM ETWin chanceCOLColorado Avalanche53%PHIPhiladelphia Flyers47%7:00 PMColorado AvalancheCOL · 5–2–1 · 2025-26: 55–16–11Rated #2COL 53%47% PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 1–6–3Rated #20
7:30 PM ETWin chanceSJSSan Jose Sharks47%TORToronto Maple Leafs53%7:30 PMSan Jose SharksSJS · 4–3–1 · 2025-26: 39–35–8Rated #29SJS 47%53% TORToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 3–4–2 · 2025-26: 32–36–14Rated #31
9:00 PM ETWin chancePITPittsburgh Penguins43%UTAUtah Mammoth57%9:00 PMPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 3–5–1 · 2025-26: 41–25–16Rated #18PIT 43%57% UTAUtah MammothUTA · 6–3–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #7

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Mon, Oct 19 · results through Sun, Oct 18

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 94% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 88% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sun, Oct 18: Columbus Blue Jackets −5, Minnesota Wild +4, Calgary Flames +1

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	15	111	94%	0
Ottawa Senators	12	102	76%	+1
Tampa Bay Lightning	12	102	75%	0
New Jersey Devils	8	97	63%	+1
Florida Panthers	12	98	62%	0
Boston Bruins	14	95	54%	0
Buffalo Sabres	10	94	50%	0
Montréal Canadiens	9	94	50%	+1

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
New York Rangers	13	92	46%	0
Washington Capitals	10	92	46%	+1
Pittsburgh Penguins	7	90	40%	+1
Columbus Blue Jackets	6	90	38%	−5
Detroit Red Wings	8	90	36%	0
New York Islanders	9	87	29%	+1
Philadelphia Flyers	5	86	27%	+1
Toronto Maple Leafs	8	81	15%	+1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	16	106	88%	0
Colorado Avalanche	11	105	85%	0
Edmonton Oilers	13	102	80%	0
Minnesota Wild	13	103	79%	+4
Utah Mammoth	12	100	72%	−1
Dallas Stars	9	97	61%	0
Anaheim Ducks	8	95	58%	0
St. Louis Blues	7	94	50%	−1

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Los Angeles Kings	2	91	46%	0
Winnipeg Jets	10	91	43%	0
Seattle Kraken	11	88	36%	0
Nashville Predators	9	89	36%	−1
San Jose Sharks	9	86	27%	−1
Calgary Flames	4	82	19%	+1
Chicago Blackhawks	6	80	12%	−1
Vancouver Canucks	5	76	8%	−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 19, 9:16 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 23 points, ahead of Jack Eichel at 18.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Lineup
'Just Gotta Be Better': Luca Cagnoni Returns to the Sharks Lineup Against Maple Leafs (external site)
The Hockey News - San Jose Sharks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 19, 2:49 PM ET
In this story: Darnell Nurse, Luca Cagnoni, Boston Bruins, Detroit Red Wings, Nashville Predators, San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs
Lineup
Game Day Gutcheck, Lineups & Stats: Ivar Stenberg vs Gavin McKenna I (external site)
The Hockey News - San Jose Sharks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 19, 2:27 PM ET
In this story: Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, Gavin McKenna, Ivar Stenberg, San Jose Sharks, Toronto Maple Leafs
Injury
Sabres Injury Updates From Practice: Rasmus Dahlin Could Return Against Philadelphia (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 19, 2:13 PM ET
In this story: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured