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Mon, Oct 12, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Mon, Oct 12 · results through Sun, Oct 11

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 92% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 87% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sun, Oct 11: Philadelphia Flyers −5, Boston Bruins +3, New York Rangers +3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes1111092%+2
Ottawa Senators810480%0
Tampa Bay Lightning810174%+1
New Jersey Devils49556%+2
Florida Panthers69554%−2
Buffalo Sabres49350%−2
Washington Capitals69349%−3
Montréal Canadiens59349%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Columbus Blue Jackets49348%−2
Pittsburgh Penguins79348%+1
New York Rangers109143%+3
Detroit Red Wings39141%+1
Boston Bruins89140%+3
Philadelphia Flyers28832%−5
New York Islanders48627%0
Toronto Maple Leafs78217%+1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1010787%−1
Colorado Avalanche610380%−1
Edmonton Oilers910380%+2
Utah Mammoth810071%+2
Anaheim Ducks89969%−1
Minnesota Wild79968%+1
Dallas Stars59658%−1
Los Angeles Kings29454%−1
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues59453%+2
Winnipeg Jets79144%0
Nashville Predators69037%0
Seattle Kraken88834%+3
San Jose Sharks68525%−3
Calgary Flames07914%0
Chicago Blackhawks28013%−1
Vancouver Canucks47913%−2

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 12, 6:10 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 13 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 12.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C13 points5 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Evan BouchardEDM · D12 points5 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Jack EichelVGK · C12 points6 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Sebastian AhoCAR · C11 points7 games (limited sample)
  5. 5William NylanderTOR · R11 points6 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Sabres' Dahlin leaves with upper-body injury in 2nd period against Panthers (external site)

    Associated Press via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres, Florida Panthers

  2. Injury

    When will Blackhawks' Connor Bedard return? Latest on shoulder injury (external site)

    USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Connor Bedard, Chicago Blackhawks

  3. Rumour

    Flyers Reportedly Not Considering Coaching Change, Rick Tocchet Not 'In Trouble' (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Philadelphia Flyers

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured