Sat, Oct 17, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

Live scores as of 5:26 PM ET; this page refreshes every minute while games are on.

FNJDNew Jersey Devils2WSHWashington Capitals4FNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 4–3–0 · 2025-26: 42–37–3Rated #92 – 4Washington CapitalsWSH · 4–3–0 · 2025-26: 43–30–9Rated #21
2nd · 00:08CARCarolina Hurricanes2WPGWinnipeg Jets23:30 PMCarolina HurricanesCAR · 6–1–1 · 2025-26: 53–22–7Rated #12 – 22nd · 00:08Winnipeg JetsWPG · 4–1–2 · 2025-26: 35–35–12Rated #23
2nd · 07:34VANVancouver Canucks2TBLTampa Bay Lightning24:00 PMVancouver CanucksVAN · 2–6–1 · 2025-26: 25–49–8Rated #322 – 22nd · 07:34Tampa Bay LightningTBL · 5–2–0 · 2025-26: 50–26–6Rated #6
6:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken41%FLAFlorida Panthers59%6:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 5–2–1 · 2025-26: 34–37–11Rated #27SEA 41%59% FLAFlorida PanthersFLA · 4–2–2 · 2025-26: 40–38–4Rated #14
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNYINew York Islanders48%TORToronto Maple Leafs52%7:00 PMNew York IslandersNYI · 3–3–1 · 2025-26: 43–34–5Rated #26NYI 48%52% TORToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 3–3–2 · 2025-26: 32–36–14Rated #31
7:00 PM ETWin chanceBUFBuffalo Sabres47%MTLMontréal Canadiens53%7:00 PMBuffalo SabresBUF · 4–3–1 · 2025-26: 50–23–9Rated #13BUF 47%53% MTLMontréal CanadiensMTL · 3–3–1 · 2025-26: 48–24–10Rated #17
7:00 PM ETWin chanceSJSSan Jose Sharks40%DETDetroit Red Wings60%7:00 PMSan Jose SharksSJS · 4–3–0 · 2025-26: 39–35–8Rated #29SJS 40%60% DETDetroit Red WingsDET · 2–3–2 · 2025-26: 41–31–10Rated #20
7:00 PM ETWin chanceOTTOttawa Senators52%PHIPhiladelphia Flyers48%7:00 PMOttawa SenatorsOTT · 6–2–0 · 2025-26: 44–27–11Rated #4OTT 52%48% PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 0–6–3 · 2025-26: 43–27–12Rated #19
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNYRNew York Rangers43%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets57%7:00 PMNew York RangersNYR · 6–3–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #24NYR 43%57% CBJColumbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 2–3–0 · 2025-26: 40–30–12Rated #15
7:00 PM ETWin chanceDALDallas Stars54%CHIChicago Blackhawks46%7:00 PMDallas StarsDAL · 3–3–1 · 2025-26: 50–20–12Rated #10DAL 54%46% CHIChicago BlackhawksCHI · 3–5–0 · 2025-26: 29–39–14Rated #30
8:00 PM ETWin chanceSTLSt. Louis Blues50%NSHNashville Predators50%8:00 PMSt. Louis BluesSTL · 3–3–1 · 2025-26: 37–33–12Rated #11STL 50%50% NSHNashville PredatorsNSH · 2–2–3 · 2025-26: 38–34–10Rated #25
9:00 PM ETWin chanceBOSBoston Bruins37%LAKLos Angeles Kings63%9:00 PMBoston BruinsBOS · 6–2–0 · 2025-26: 45–27–10Rated #22BOS 37%63% LAKLos Angeles KingsLAK · 0–3–2 · 2025-26: 35–27–20Rated #12
10:00 PM ETWin chanceEDMEdmonton Oilers45%UTAUtah Mammoth55%10:00 PMEdmonton OilersEDM · 5–1–1 · 2025-26: 41–30–11Rated #5EDM 45%55% UTAUtah MammothUTA · 6–2–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #8
10:00 PM ETWin chancePITPittsburgh Penguins35%VGKVegas Golden Knights65%10:00 PMPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 3–4–1 · 2025-26: 41–25–16Rated #16PIT 35%65% VGKVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 7–2–0 · 2025-26: 39–26–17Rated #3

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Sat, Oct 17 · results through Fri, Oct 16

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 94% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 87% in the West.

Biggest moves since Fri, Oct 16: Anaheim Ducks −4, Utah Mammoth +4, Boston Bruins +3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	13	112	94%	0
Ottawa Senators	12	103	79%	0
Tampa Bay Lightning	10	100	71%	−1
New Jersey Devils	8	97	64%	+2
Florida Panthers	10	96	58%	0
Buffalo Sabres	9	94	52%	−1
Boston Bruins	12	93	48%	+3
Montréal Canadiens	7	93	48%	0

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Washington Capitals	8	92	46%	0
New York Rangers	12	92	45%	−1
Columbus Blue Jackets	4	91	44%	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	7	91	43%	−3
Detroit Red Wings	6	90	39%	+1
New York Islanders	7	86	28%	0
Philadelphia Flyers	3	85	24%	−2
Toronto Maple Leafs	8	82	17%	0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	14	106	87%	0
Colorado Avalanche	11	105	83%	+2
Edmonton Oilers	11	101	76%	−3
Utah Mammoth	12	102	76%	+4
Minnesota Wild	11	101	74%	+2
Anaheim Ducks	8	95	57%	−4
Dallas Stars	7	96	56%	−1
St. Louis Blues	7	95	54%	−3

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Los Angeles Kings	2	93	52%	+1
Winnipeg Jets	10	92	45%	0
Seattle Kraken	11	90	41%	+1
Nashville Predators	7	88	32%	−1
San Jose Sharks	8	84	23%	0
Calgary Flames	2	81	17%	0
Chicago Blackhawks	6	81	15%	0
Vancouver Canucks	5	78	11%	0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 17, 6:12 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 18 points, ahead of Nathan MacKinnon at 16.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Rumour
Penguins Former First-Round Pick Suddenly Named Trade Candidate (external site)
The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports · Oct 17, 4:22 PM ET
In this story: Pittsburgh Penguins
Transaction
Former Buffalo Sabres Defenseman Waived By Red Wings (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 17, 3:56 PM ET
In this story: Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings
Injury
Maple Leafs Assign Dakota Joshua To LTIR Conditioning Loan (external site)
The Hockey News - Toronto Maple Leafs via Yahoo Sports · Oct 17, 8:02 AM ET
In this story: Dakota Joshua, New York Rangers, Toronto Maple Leafs

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured