Wed, Oct 7, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:30 PM ETWin chancePITPittsburgh Penguins46%WSHWashington Capitals54%7:30 PMPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 2–1–0 · 2025-26: 41–25–16Rated #13PIT 46%54% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 1–1–0 · 2025-26: 43–30–9Rated #21
7:30 PM ETWin chanceCOLColorado Avalanche52%WPGWinnipeg Jets48%7:30 PMColorado AvalancheCOL · 2–0–0 · 2025-26: 55–16–11Rated #4COL 52%48% WPGWinnipeg JetsWPG · 2–0–1 · 2025-26: 35–35–12Rated #22
10:00 PM ETWin chanceEDMEdmonton Oilers48%ANAAnaheim Ducks52%10:00 PMEdmonton OilersEDM · 2–0–1 · 2025-26: 41–30–11Rated #6EDM 48%52% ANAAnaheim DucksANA · 2–0–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #15

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Wed, Oct 7 · results through Tue, Oct 6

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 84% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 84% in the West.

Biggest moves since Tue, Oct 6: New Jersey Devils −4, Philadelphia Flyers −4, Tampa Bay Lightning +4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	5	106	84%	+2
Ottawa Senators	4	105	82%	−2
Tampa Bay Lightning	4	100	68%	+4
Florida Panthers	6	97	58%	+3
Buffalo Sabres	4	96	57%	+2
New Jersey Devils	2	95	55%	−4
Pittsburgh Penguins	4	94	52%	−2
Montréal Canadiens	3	94	51%	−3

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Columbus Blue Jackets	2	93	48%	0
Washington Capitals	2	92	44%	+1
Detroit Red Wings	2	91	42%	+3
New York Rangers	8	91	40%	+3
Philadelphia Flyers	2	90	39%	−4
Boston Bruins	4	90	36%	0
New York Islanders	2	88	31%	−2
Toronto Maple Leafs	4	81	15%	+1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	6	105	84%	+2
Colorado Avalanche	4	105	83%	0
Edmonton Oilers	5	100	74%	0
Minnesota Wild	5	99	70%	0
Utah Mammoth	6	97	62%	+3
Anaheim Ducks	4	96	62%	0
Los Angeles Kings	1	95	58%	−3
Dallas Stars	2	95	56%	+3

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Winnipeg Jets	5	94	52%	+2
St. Louis Blues	2	93	49%	−3
Nashville Predators	3	88	35%	0
San Jose Sharks	4	87	32%	−2
Seattle Kraken	4	86	30%	−3
Vancouver Canucks	4	82	19%	0
Chicago Blackhawks	2	82	18%	+1
Calgary Flames	0	81	17%	0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 7, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Jack Eichel leads with 10 points, ahead of Connor McDavid at 9.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Injury
Minnesota Wild Recall Veteran Tyler Pitlick With Nick Foligno Injured (external site)
The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports · Oct 7, 4:13 PM ET
In this story: Nick Foligno, Tyler Pitlick, Buffalo Sabres, Minnesota Wild
Transaction
Florida Panthers Place MacKenzie Entwistle On Waivers (external site)
The Hockey News - Florida Panthers via Yahoo Sports · Oct 7, 2:24 PM ET
In this story: MacKenzie Entwistle, Florida Panthers
Transaction
Penguins Acquire Spencer Stastney From Edmonton Oilers for Filip Hallander (external site)
The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports · Oct 7, 1:56 PM ET
In this story: Filip Hallander, Spencer Stastney, Edmonton Oilers, Pittsburgh Penguins
Also reported by: The Hockey News - Edmonton Oilers via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured