Sat, Oct 24, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

1:00 PM ETWin chanceANAAnaheim Ducks44%PHIPhiladelphia Flyers56%1:00 PMAnaheim DucksANA · 4–6–0Rated #20ANA 44%56% PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 3–6–3Rated #17
3:30 PM ETWin chanceLAKLos Angeles Kings42%NJDNew Jersey Devils58%3:30 PMLos Angeles KingsLAK · 2–4–2 · 2025-26: 35–27–20Rated #14LAK 42%58% NJDNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 6–4–0Rated #8
7:00 PM ETWin chanceSJSSan Jose Sharks42%BOSBoston Bruins58%7:00 PMSan Jose SharksSJS · 6–4–1Rated #29SJS 42%58% BOSBoston BruinsBOS · 8–2–1Rated #22
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNYRNew York Rangers39%OTTOttawa Senators61%7:00 PMNew York RangersNYR · 7–4–1Rated #23NYR 39%61% OTTOttawa SenatorsOTT · 7–4–0Rated #4
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNSHNashville Predators43%PITPittsburgh Penguins57%7:00 PMNashville PredatorsNSH · 3–3–3 · 2025-26: 38–34–10Rated #25NSH 43%57% PITPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 4–6–1Rated #16
7:00 PM ETWin chanceBUFBuffalo Sabres48%WSHWashington Capitals52%7:00 PMBuffalo SabresBUF · 4–4–2Rated #12BUF 48%52% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 5–4–0 · 2025-26: 43–30–9Rated #24
7:00 PM ETWin chanceVGKVegas Golden Knights52%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets48%7:00 PMVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 8–4–0Rated #3VGK 52%48% CBJColumbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 3–5–0 · 2025-26: 40–30–12Rated #18
7:00 PM ETWin chanceCARCarolina Hurricanes55%STLSt. Louis Blues45%7:00 PMCarolina HurricanesCAR · 8–2–2Rated #1CAR 55%45% STLSt. Louis BluesSTL · 5–4–1Rated #13
7:00 PM ETWin chanceTORToronto Maple Leafs37%EDMEdmonton Oilers63%7:00 PMToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 6–4–2Rated #30TOR 37%63% EDMEdmonton OilersEDM · 8–1–1Rated #9
9:00 PM ETWin chanceTBLTampa Bay Lightning40%UTAUtah Mammoth60%9:00 PMTampa Bay LightningTBL · 7–2–0 · 2025-26: 50–26–6Rated #6TBL 40%60% UTAUtah MammothUTA · 7–4–0Rated #7
10:00 PM ETWin chanceDETDetroit Red Wings50%CGYCalgary Flames50%10:00 PMDetroit Red WingsDET · 4–3–3Rated #19DET 50%50% CGYCalgary FlamesCGY · 3–6–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #28
10:00 PM ETWin chanceMINMinnesota Wild55%SEASeattle Kraken45%10:00 PMMinnesota WildMIN · 6–3–2Rated #5MIN 55%45% SEASeattle KrakenSEA · 7–3–1Rated #27

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Fri, Oct 23 · results through Thu, Oct 22

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 95% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 86% in the West.

Biggest moves since Thu, Oct 22: New York Rangers −7, Anaheim Ducks −6, Detroit Red Wings +5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	18	112	95%	0
Tampa Bay Lightning	14	102	76%	0
Ottawa Senators	14	102	75%	−3
New Jersey Devils	12	100	71%	+5
Boston Bruins	17	96	56%	+4
Florida Panthers	12	95	53%	−5
Montréal Canadiens	10	93	47%	−1
Buffalo Sabres	10	93	45%	−1

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
New York Rangers	15	92	43%	−7
Washington Capitals	10	91	43%	0
Detroit Red Wings	11	91	41%	+5
Pittsburgh Penguins	9	90	36%	+3
Philadelphia Flyers	9	89	34%	0
New York Islanders	12	89	33%	−1
Columbus Blue Jackets	6	88	31%	−1
Toronto Maple Leafs	14	85	21%	+2

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	16	104	86%	−1
Edmonton Oilers	17	104	84%	+2
Minnesota Wild	14	102	79%	−1
Colorado Avalanche	11	102	78%	0
Utah Mammoth	14	100	73%	−4
Dallas Stars	13	99	69%	+4
St. Louis Blues	11	95	56%	+3
Los Angeles Kings	6	92	51%	+3

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Seattle Kraken	15	91	44%	+5
Winnipeg Jets	11	90	39%	−1
Anaheim Ducks	8	89	39%	−6
Nashville Predators	9	88	32%	−4
San Jose Sharks	13	87	32%	+3
Calgary Flames	6	83	21%	+1
Chicago Blackhawks	6	80	13%	0
Vancouver Canucks	5	73	5%	−2

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 23, 9:03 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 31 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 21.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Lineup
St. Louis Blues Recall Defenseman Quinton Burns From Springfield (external site)
The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports · Oct 23, 11:34 PM ET
In this story: St. Louis Blues
Transaction
Former Penguins' Defenseman Placed On Waivers (external site)
The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports · Oct 23, 3:38 PM ET
In this story: Pittsburgh Penguins, Winnipeg Jets
Injury
Kulich Injured At Practice, Status Unknown For Upcoming Road Trip (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 23, 3:02 PM ET

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured