Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.
Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).
2026-27 projection
Points leaders
Projected over each club’s full 2026-27 regular season, assuming the player plays every game.
The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average
Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.
Player−15.50+15.525-26 → 26-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 → −1.6−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.8 → −1.6−8.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 → −1.6−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.0 → −1.8−10.0 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 → −2.1−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+13.2 → +2.4+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.2 → +2.4+13.2 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.8 → +2.5+13.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.5 → +2.6+14.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.6 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.5 → +2.8+15.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27
What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
Measured against each player’s position rather than raw goals minus xG, so forwards and defencemen share one scale. Projected at the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates; the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured
