Mon, Oct 26, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:00 PM ETWin chanceLAKLos Angeles Kings48%NYRNew York Rangers52%7:00 PMLos Angeles KingsLAK · 2–5–2 · 2025-26: 35–27–20Rated #14LAK 48%52% NYRNew York RangersNYR · 7–5–1Rated #24
8:30 PM ETWin chanceTORToronto Maple Leafs46%CGYCalgary Flames54%8:30 PMToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 7–4–2Rated #30TOR 46%54% CGYCalgary FlamesCGY · 4–6–0Rated #29
9:30 PM ETWin chanceDETDetroit Red Wings43%EDMEdmonton Oilers57%9:30 PMDetroit Red WingsDET · 4–4–3Rated #18DET 43%57% EDMEdmonton OilersEDM · 8–2–1Rated #9

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Sun, Oct 25 · results through Sat, Oct 24

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 96% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 87% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sat, Oct 24: Anaheim Ducks +10, Philadelphia Flyers −8, Seattle Kraken −7

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	20	113	96%	+1
Ottawa Senators	16	102	76%	+2
New Jersey Devils	14	102	75%	+5
Tampa Bay Lightning	15	102	75%	0
Boston Bruins	19	97	60%	+4
Florida Panthers	12	95	51%	−1
Montréal Canadiens	12	95	50%	−1
Washington Capitals	12	93	47%	+4

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Buffalo Sabres	11	92	41%	−4
New York Rangers	15	91	39%	−4
Detroit Red Wings	11	91	38%	−3
Pittsburgh Penguins	11	91	38%	+2
New York Islanders	12	89	32%	−1
Columbus Blue Jackets	8	88	32%	+1
Philadelphia Flyers	9	86	26%	−8
Toronto Maple Leafs	16	87	24%	+3

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	17	104	87%	+1
Minnesota Wild	16	105	85%	+6
Edmonton Oilers	17	102	82%	−2
Colorado Avalanche	13	102	79%	0
Utah Mammoth	16	101	76%	+3
Dallas Stars	13	99	70%	+1
St. Louis Blues	11	93	52%	−4
Anaheim Ducks	10	91	49%	+10

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Los Angeles Kings	6	90	46%	−5
Winnipeg Jets	11	90	40%	+1
Seattle Kraken	15	88	37%	−7
Nashville Predators	10	88	32%	0
San Jose Sharks	13	85	28%	−4
Calgary Flames	8	83	22%	+1
Chicago Blackhawks	6	79	11%	0
Vancouver Canucks	5	73	5%	0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 25, 8:46 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 33 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 23.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Transaction
Former Sabres Goalie Signs With The Rangers (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 25, 10:07 PM ET
In this story: Buffalo Sabres, New York Rangers
Transaction
Former Sharks Defenseman Placed on Waivers by Vancouver (external site)
The Hockey News - San Jose Sharks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 25, 8:45 PM ET
In this story: Jack Thompson, San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks
Transaction
Hurricanes sign Nikishin to 1-year, $3M deal to end restricted free agent's contract stalemate (external site)
Associated Press via Yahoo Sports · Oct 25, 5:49 PM ET
In this story: Alexander Nikishin, Carolina Hurricanes

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured