Sun, Oct 4, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

FWPGWinnipeg Jets3DETDetroit Red Wings2FWinnipeg JetsWPG · 0–0–1 · 2025-26: 35–35–12Rated #213 – 2Detroit Red WingsDET · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 41–31–10Rated #16
6:00 PM ETWin chanceUTAUtah Mammoth50%NYRNew York Rangers50%6:00 PMUtah MammothUTA · 2–0–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #12UTA 50%50% NYRNew York RangersNYR · 2–1–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #27
8:00 PM ETWin chanceFLAFlorida Panthers44%ANAAnaheim Ducks56%8:00 PMFlorida PanthersFLA · 1–0–1 · 2025-26: 40–38–4Rated #19FLA 44%56% ANAAnaheim DucksANA · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #17
8:00 PM ETWin chanceCGYCalgary Flames44%SEASeattle Kraken56%8:00 PMCalgary FlamesCGY · 0–2–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #29CGY 44%56% SEASeattle KrakenSEA · 1–1–0 · 2025-26: 34–37–11Rated #28
9:00 PM ETWin chanceVGKVegas Golden Knights57%VANVancouver Canucks43%9:00 PMVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 1–1–0 · 2025-26: 39–26–17Rated #4VGK 57%43% VANVancouver CanucksVAN · 2–1–0 · 2025-26: 25–49–8Rated #32

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Sun, Oct 4 · results through Sat, Oct 3

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Ottawa Senators at 81% in the East; Colorado Avalanche at 83% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sat, Oct 3: Columbus Blue Jackets −4, Dallas Stars −4, New Jersey Devils −3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Ottawa Senators	2	105	81%	+2
Carolina Hurricanes	3	105	80%	+2
Tampa Bay Lightning	2	98	63%	+2
Philadelphia Flyers	2	97	59%	−1
New Jersey Devils	2	96	55%	−3
Buffalo Sabres	2	95	53%	+2
Montréal Canadiens	3	95	52%	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	4	95	52%	+3

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Florida Panthers	3	94	49%	0
Columbus Blue Jackets	2	94	49%	−4
Washington Capitals	2	92	45%	−2
Detroit Red Wings	0	92	44%	0
Boston Bruins	4	91	41%	−2
New York Islanders	2	89	33%	+3
New York Rangers	4	87	29%	0
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	81	15%	−2

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Colorado Avalanche	4	105	83%	+1
Vegas Golden Knights	2	102	77%	0
Edmonton Oilers	5	99	71%	+1
Minnesota Wild	4	98	66%	+2
Anaheim Ducks	2	96	62%	0
Utah Mammoth	4	96	60%	+3
Los Angeles Kings	1	94	56%	0
Dallas Stars	0	94	53%	−4

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
St. Louis Blues	2	93	52%	−2
Winnipeg Jets	1	91	44%	0
San Jose Sharks	4	90	42%	+2
Nashville Predators	2	89	38%	+2
Seattle Kraken	2	86	31%	−3
Vancouver Canucks	4	84	23%	+1
Calgary Flames	0	83	22%	−2
Chicago Blackhawks	0	82	20%	−2

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 4, 6:08 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 9 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 8.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Injury
Blues' Toropchenko To Miss Minimum Six Weeks With Upper-Body Injury (external site)
The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports · Oct 4, 3:31 PM ET
In this story: Alexey Toropchenko, St. Louis Blues
Injury
Denver Barkey Injury Update: Flyers Forward Trending Towards Return (external site)
The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports · Oct 4, 1:30 PM ET
In this story: Denver Barkey, Philadelphia Flyers
Rumour
Canadiens Have New Trade Target To Consider In Red Wings Defender (external site)
The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports · Oct 4, 12:30 PM ET
In this story: Detroit Red Wings, Montréal Canadiens

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Mackie Samoskevich−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured