Tue, Oct 20, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:00 PM ETWin chanceSJSSan Jose Sharks35%MTLMontréal Canadiens65%7:00 PMSan Jose SharksSJS · 4–4–1 · 2025-26: 39–35–8Rated #29SJS 35%65% MTLMontréal CanadiensMTL · 4–3–1 · 2025-26: 48–24–10Rated #17
7:00 PM ETWin chanceCOLColorado Avalanche43%NJDNew Jersey Devils57%7:00 PMColorado AvalancheCOL · 5–3–1 · 2025-26: 55–16–11Rated #2COL 43%57% NJDNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 4–4–0 · 2025-26: 42–37–3Rated #9
7:00 PM ETWin chanceANAAnaheim Ducks44%NYINew York Islanders56%7:00 PMAnaheim DucksANA · 4–4–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #16ANA 44%56% NYINew York IslandersNYI · 4–3–1 · 2025-26: 43–34–5Rated #26
7:00 PM ETWin chanceLAKLos Angeles Kings49%WSHWashington Capitals51%7:00 PMLos Angeles KingsLAK · 0–4–2 · 2025-26: 35–27–20Rated #11LAK 49%51% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 5–3–0 · 2025-26: 43–30–9Rated #21
7:00 PM ETWin chanceTORToronto Maple Leafs35%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets65%7:00 PMToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 4–4–2Rated #30TOR 35%65% CBJColumbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 3–4–0 · 2025-26: 40–30–12Rated #18
8:00 PM ETWin chanceWPGWinnipeg Jets43%STLSt. Louis Blues57%8:00 PMWinnipeg JetsWPG · 4–2–2 · 2025-26: 35–35–12Rated #23WPG 43%57% STLSt. Louis BluesSTL · 3–4–1 · 2025-26: 37–33–12Rated #13
8:00 PM ETWin chanceBOSBoston Bruins43%DALDallas Stars57%8:00 PMBoston BruinsBOS · 7–2–0 · 2025-26: 45–27–10Rated #22BOS 43%57% DALDallas StarsDAL · 4–3–1 · 2025-26: 50–20–12Rated #10
9:00 PM ETWin chanceMINMinnesota Wild47%EDMEdmonton Oilers53%9:00 PMMinnesota WildMIN · 6–2–1 · 2025-26: 46–24–12Rated #5MIN 47%53% EDMEdmonton OilersEDM · 6–1–1 · 2025-26: 41–30–11Rated #8
9:40 PM ETWin chanceDETDetroit Red Wings49%SEASeattle Kraken51%9:40 PMDetroit Red WingsDET · 3–3–2 · 2025-26: 41–31–10Rated #19DET 49%51% SEASeattle KrakenSEA · 5–3–1 · 2025-26: 34–37–11Rated #27
10:00 PM ETWin chanceCARCarolina Hurricanes63%VANVancouver Canucks37%10:00 PMCarolina HurricanesCAR · 7–2–1Rated #1CAR 63%37% VANVancouver CanucksVAN · 2–7–1Rated #32
10:30 PM ETWin chanceTBLTampa Bay Lightning45%VGKVegas Golden Knights55%10:30 PMTampa Bay LightningTBL · 6–2–0 · 2025-26: 50–26–6Rated #6TBL 45%55% VGKVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 8–2–0Rated #3

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Tue, Oct 20 · results through Mon, Oct 19

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 93% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 88% in the West.

Biggest moves since Mon, Oct 19: Pittsburgh Penguins −7, Anaheim Ducks −5, New York Rangers +5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	15	111	93%	−1
Ottawa Senators	12	102	75%	−1
Tampa Bay Lightning	12	102	75%	0
New Jersey Devils	8	97	63%	0
Florida Panthers	12	98	62%	0
Boston Bruins	14	95	54%	0
New York Rangers	15	94	51%	+5
Buffalo Sabres	10	94	50%	0

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Montréal Canadiens	9	94	49%	−1
Washington Capitals	10	92	45%	−1
Columbus Blue Jackets	6	90	37%	−1
Detroit Red Wings	8	90	36%	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	7	89	33%	−7
Philadelphia Flyers	7	88	31%	+4
New York Islanders	9	87	28%	−1
Toronto Maple Leafs	10	82	16%	+1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	16	106	88%	0
Colorado Avalanche	11	104	81%	−4
Edmonton Oilers	13	102	81%	+1
Minnesota Wild	13	103	79%	0
Utah Mammoth	14	102	77%	+5
Dallas Stars	9	97	61%	0
Anaheim Ducks	8	93	53%	−5
St. Louis Blues	7	94	51%	+1

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Los Angeles Kings	2	91	47%	+1
Winnipeg Jets	10	91	43%	0
Seattle Kraken	11	88	37%	+1
Nashville Predators	9	89	36%	0
San Jose Sharks	9	85	25%	−2
Calgary Flames	4	82	20%	+1
Chicago Blackhawks	6	80	13%	+1
Vancouver Canucks	5	76	9%	+1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 20, 8:57 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 23 points, ahead of Jack Eichel at 18.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Rumour
Sabres GM Kekalainen Pushes Back On Trade Rumors, Expresses Confidence In Luukkonen (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 20, 3:27 PM ET
In this story: Connor Hellebuyck, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Buffalo Sabres
Lineup
(10-20-26) Jets-Blues Gameday Lineup (external site)
The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports · Oct 20, 2:17 PM ET
In this story: St. Louis Blues, Winnipeg Jets
Injury
Cooper Black Recalled, Expected To Make NHL Debut On Panthers Road Trip After Jacob Markstrom Was Hurt During Practice (external site)
The Hockey News - Florida Panthers via Yahoo Sports · Oct 20, 1:23 PM ET
In this story: Jacob Markstrom, Florida Panthers

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured