Fri, Oct 9, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken41%DETDetroit Red Wings59%7:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 2–2–0 · 2025-26: 34–37–11Rated #27SEA 41%59% DETDetroit Red WingsDET · 1–2–0 · 2025-26: 41–31–10Rated #19
7:00 PM ETWin chanceNYRNew York Rangers44%WSHWashington Capitals56%7:00 PMNew York RangersNYR · 4–1–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #24NYR 44%56% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 2–1–0 · 2025-26: 43–30–9Rated #22
7:00 PM ETWin chancePITPittsburgh Penguins46%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets54%7:00 PMPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 2–2–0 · 2025-26: 41–25–16Rated #15PIT 46%54% CBJColumbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 1–1–0 · 2025-26: 40–30–12Rated #14
8:00 PM ETWin chanceANAAnaheim Ducks47%WPGWinnipeg Jets53%8:00 PMAnaheim DucksANA · 2–1–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #16ANA 47%53% WPGWinnipeg JetsWPG · 3–0–1 · 2025-26: 35–35–12Rated #21

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Fri, Oct 9 · results through Thu, Oct 8

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 88% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 86% in the West.

Biggest moves since Wed, Oct 7: Minnesota Wild −7, Montréal Canadiens −5, New York Rangers +5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	7	108	88%	+4
Ottawa Senators	6	105	81%	−1
Tampa Bay Lightning	6	101	71%	+3
Florida Panthers	6	97	59%	+1
Buffalo Sabres	4	96	55%	−2
New Jersey Devils	2	94	52%	−3
Columbus Blue Jackets	2	93	48%	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	4	93	47%	−5

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Washington Capitals	4	93	47%	+3
Montréal Canadiens	3	93	46%	−5
New York Rangers	8	92	45%	+5
Detroit Red Wings	2	92	45%	+3
Boston Bruins	6	90	37%	+1
Philadelphia Flyers	2	89	36%	−3
New York Islanders	4	87	30%	−1
Toronto Maple Leafs	5	81	14%	−1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	8	106	86%	+2
Colorado Avalanche	6	105	84%	+1
Edmonton Oilers	7	101	76%	+2
Minnesota Wild	5	97	63%	−7
Utah Mammoth	6	97	62%	0
Anaheim Ducks	4	96	62%	0
Dallas Stars	4	96	60%	+4
Los Angeles Kings	1	94	55%	−3

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Winnipeg Jets	7	94	52%	0
St. Louis Blues	3	93	49%	0
Nashville Predators	5	89	38%	+3
San Jose Sharks	6	87	33%	+1
Seattle Kraken	4	85	28%	−2
Vancouver Canucks	4	81	18%	−1
Chicago Blackhawks	2	81	17%	−1
Calgary Flames	0	80	16%	−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 9, 6:11 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are level at 12 points.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Transaction
Former Avalanche Defenseman Part of Historic Night Now Placed on Waivers (external site)
The Hockey News - Colorado Avalanche via Yahoo Sports · Oct 9, 3:22 PM ET
In this story: Colorado Avalanche
Transaction
Devils’ Stefan Noesen Clears Waivers (external site)
The Hockey News - New Jersey Devils via Yahoo Sports · Oct 9, 2:05 PM ET
In this story: Stefan Noesen, New Jersey Devils
Injury
Former Canadiens Prospect Injured In First Game vs. Montreal (external site)
The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports · Oct 9, 12:30 PM ET
In this story: Montréal Canadiens

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured