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Sun, Oct 18, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Sun, Oct 18 · results through Sat, Oct 17

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 94% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 88% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sat, Oct 17: Boston Bruins +6, Los Angeles Kings −6, Dallas Stars +5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes1511294%0
Ottawa Senators1210275%−4
Tampa Bay Lightning1210275%+4
New Jersey Devils89762%−2
Florida Panthers129862%+4
Boston Bruins149554%+6
Buffalo Sabres109450%−2
Montréal Canadiens99449%+1
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
New York Rangers139246%+1
Washington Capitals109245%−1
Columbus Blue Jackets69243%−1
Pittsburgh Penguins79039%−4
Detroit Red Wings89036%−3
New York Islanders98728%0
Philadelphia Flyers58626%+2
Toronto Maple Leafs88114%−3

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1610688%+1
Colorado Avalanche1110585%+2
Edmonton Oilers1310280%+4
Minnesota Wild1110175%+1
Utah Mammoth1210073%−3
Dallas Stars99761%+5
Anaheim Ducks89558%+1
St. Louis Blues79451%−3
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Los Angeles Kings29146%−6
Winnipeg Jets109143%−2
Nashville Predators98937%+5
Seattle Kraken118836%−5
San Jose Sharks98628%+5
Calgary Flames28118%+1
Chicago Blackhawks68013%−2
Vancouver Canucks5769%−2

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 18, 9:05 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 23 points, ahead of Jack Eichel at 18.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C23 points8 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Jack EichelVGK · C18 points10 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C16 points8 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Evan BouchardEDM · D16 points8 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Kirill KaprizovMIN · L14 points8 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Flyers Continue to Battle Injury Bug, More Key Forwards Ailing (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Philadelphia Flyers

  2. Injury

    'I've Got To Step My Game Up': Daemon Hunt Embracing Bigger Role With Injury-Riddled Wild (external site)

    The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Daemon Hunt, Minnesota Wild

  3. Injury

    Islanders grind out tough road win over Maple Leafs but suffer two key injuries (external site)

    NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: New York Islanders, Toronto Maple Leafs

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured