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Thu, Oct 15, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Thu, Oct 15 · results through Wed, Oct 14

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 94% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 86% in the West.

Biggest moves since Wed, Oct 14: Dallas Stars +3, Montréal Canadiens −3, Washington Capitals +3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes1311294%0
Ottawa Senators1010378%0
Tampa Bay Lightning810071%0
New Jersey Devils69660%0
Florida Panthers89557%0
Buffalo Sabres79451%0
Montréal Canadiens79350%−3
New York Rangers129349%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Boston Bruins109246%0
Pittsburgh Penguins79246%0
Washington Capitals89245%+3
Columbus Blue Jackets49143%−1
Detroit Red Wings48936%0
Philadelphia Flyers38729%0
New York Islanders68628%0
Toronto Maple Leafs78217%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1210586%0
Colorado Avalanche910482%0
Edmonton Oilers1110381%0
Minnesota Wild910070%0
Utah Mammoth1010070%0
Anaheim Ducks89661%0
St. Louis Blues79760%0
Dallas Stars79656%+3
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Los Angeles Kings29351%0
Winnipeg Jets99246%0
Seattle Kraken109040%0
Nashville Predators68934%0
San Jose Sharks68321%0
Calgary Flames28219%0
Chicago Blackhawks48114%0
Vancouver Canucks47811%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 15, 6:13 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 17 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 14.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C17 points6 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Evan BouchardEDM · D14 points6 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Sebastian AhoCAR · C13 points8 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Jack EichelVGK · C13 points8 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C12 points7 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Lineup

    Minnesota Wild Recall Top Prospect Carson Lambos; Assign Justin Kirkland To AHL (external site)

    The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Justin Kirkland, Carson Lambos, Minnesota Wild, St. Louis Blues

  2. Lineup

    Blackhawks Vs Jets: Projected Lineup, How To Watch, & More Ahead Of Game 8 (external site)

    The Hockey News - Chicago Blackhawks via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Chicago Blackhawks, Winnipeg Jets

  3. Transaction

    Shawn Horcoff: Red Wings "Open Minded" To Different Simon Edvinsson Contract Options (external site)

    The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Simon Edvinsson, Detroit Red Wings

    Also reported by: The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured