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Sun, Oct 25, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Sat, Oct 24 · results through Fri, Oct 23

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 95% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 86% in the West.

Biggest moves since Fri, Oct 23: Montréal Canadiens +4, Chicago Blackhawks −2, Colorado Avalanche +1

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes1811295%0
Tampa Bay Lightning1410275%−1
Ottawa Senators1410274%−1
New Jersey Devils1210070%−1
Boston Bruins179656%0
Florida Panthers129552%−1
Montréal Canadiens129551%+4
Buffalo Sabres109345%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
New York Rangers159243%0
Washington Capitals109143%0
Detroit Red Wings119141%0
Pittsburgh Penguins99036%0
Philadelphia Flyers98934%0
New York Islanders128933%0
Columbus Blue Jackets68831%0
Toronto Maple Leafs148521%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1610486%0
Edmonton Oilers1710484%0
Minnesota Wild1410379%0
Colorado Avalanche1310279%+1
Utah Mammoth1410073%0
Dallas Stars139969%0
St. Louis Blues119556%0
Los Angeles Kings69251%0
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Seattle Kraken159144%0
Winnipeg Jets119039%0
Anaheim Ducks88939%0
Nashville Predators98832%0
San Jose Sharks138732%0
Calgary Flames68321%0
Chicago Blackhawks67911%−2
Vancouver Canucks5735%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 24, 9:03 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 31 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 21.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C31 points10 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Leon DraisaitlEDM · C21 points10 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C20 points11 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Evan BouchardEDM · D19 points10 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Jack EichelVGK · C19 points12 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Sabres Needed To Hit A Home Run By Acquiring Star Goalie Hellebuyck – And Failing To Do So Is A Lost Opportunity For Buffalo GM Kekalainen (external site)

    The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Connor Hellebuyck, Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils

    Also reported by: NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site), SNY via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - New York Islanders via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports (external site), NBC Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - New Jersey Devils via Yahoo Sports (external site), Yahoo Sports (external site)

  2. Transaction

    Former Penguins Defenseman Claimed Off Waivers By Big Rival (external site)

    The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Pittsburgh Penguins

  3. Injury

    Penguins Place Girard On IR, Recall Hayes (external site)

    The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Samuel Girard, Avery Hayes, Pittsburgh Penguins

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured