Fri, Oct 30, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

6:00 PM ETWin chanceNJDNew Jersey Devils44%VGKVegas Golden Knights56%6:00 PMNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 8–5–0Rated #4NJD 44%56% VGKVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 9–4–1Rated #3
7:00 PM ETWin chanceWPGWinnipeg Jets37%FLAFlorida Panthers63%7:00 PMWinnipeg JetsWPG · 4–5–3Rated #23WPG 37%63% FLAFlorida PanthersFLA · 7–4–2Rated #11
8:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken46%CGYCalgary Flames54%8:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 8–4–1Rated #28SEA 46%54% CGYCalgary FlamesCGY · 5–7–0Rated #27

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Thu, Oct 29 · results through Wed, Oct 28

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 97% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 90% in the West.

Biggest moves since Wed, Oct 28: Washington Capitals +6, Philadelphia Flyers −5, New Jersey Devils −4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	22	114	97%	+1
New Jersey Devils	16	101	75%	−4
Tampa Bay Lightning	15	102	75%	+1
Ottawa Senators	16	101	71%	0
Florida Panthers	16	97	59%	+1
Boston Bruins	19	96	56%	0
Montréal Canadiens	16	96	53%	0
Washington Capitals	14	94	52%	+6

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Buffalo Sabres	13	94	47%	+1
Detroit Red Wings	13	93	43%	+1
Pittsburgh Penguins	11	91	38%	0
New York Rangers	15	89	34%	+1
Columbus Blue Jackets	10	89	32%	+1
New York Islanders	14	88	30%	0
Philadelphia Flyers	10	85	22%	−5
Toronto Maple Leafs	16	84	17%	−2

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	19	106	90%	0
Minnesota Wild	20	107	90%	0
Edmonton Oilers	20	102	83%	+2
Colorado Avalanche	15	102	79%	+3
Utah Mammoth	16	100	74%	0
Dallas Stars	15	99	70%	0
St. Louis Blues	11	93	50%	−1
Los Angeles Kings	8	90	45%	−1

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Anaheim Ducks	11	90	44%	−1
Seattle Kraken	17	89	41%	+2
Nashville Predators	13	89	37%	0
Winnipeg Jets	11	88	34%	0
Calgary Flames	10	83	24%	−3
San Jose Sharks	13	83	23%	0
Chicago Blackhawks	8	79	11%	0
Vancouver Canucks	7	73	5%	0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 29, 8:50 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 36 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 24.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Injury
Ryan Pulock exits early in latest Islanders injury worry (external site)
NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports · Oct 29, 9:37 PM ET
In this story: Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders
Rumour
Why Dylan Larkin was suspended by Red Wings and where trade talks stand (external site)
USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports · Oct 29, 7:41 PM ET
In this story: Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings
Also reported by: The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports (external site), USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports (external site)
Transaction
Dylan Larkin suspended by Red Wings as trade drama erupts (external site)
NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports · Oct 29, 7:04 PM ET
In this story: Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings
Also reported by: The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured