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Thu, Nov 5, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Thu, Nov 5 · results through Wed, Nov 4

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 96% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 92% in the West.

Biggest moves since Wed, Nov 4: Buffalo Sabres −6, Ottawa Senators +5, Florida Panthers +4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes2611496%0
New Jersey Devils2010483%0
Tampa Bay Lightning2010479%0
Ottawa Senators2110275%+5
Florida Panthers209861%+4
Boston Bruins239758%0
Montréal Canadiens219655%0
Buffalo Sabres179446%−6
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Washington Capitals169245%0
Detroit Red Wings179342%0
New York Rangers178933%−1
New York Islanders168931%0
Pittsburgh Penguins128930%−1
Columbus Blue Jackets128830%0
Philadelphia Flyers128521%0
Toronto Maple Leafs188315%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Minnesota Wild2510892%0
Vegas Golden Knights2210488%−1
Edmonton Oilers2510588%0
Utah Mammoth2010382%0
Colorado Avalanche1910281%0
Dallas Stars199869%0
St. Louis Blues159352%+1
Los Angeles Kings129251%+3
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Anaheim Ducks159045%0
Nashville Predators179141%0
Seattle Kraken198940%+1
Winnipeg Jets138627%0
Calgary Flames158424%0
San Jose Sharks158013%−2
Chicago Blackhawks9755%−1
Vancouver Canucks7703%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Nov 5, 7:47 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 40 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 29.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C40 points16 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Leon DraisaitlEDM · C29 points16 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Evan BouchardEDM · D28 points16 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C27 points16 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Kirill KaprizovMIN · L26 points17 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Rumour

    Goalie Hellebuyck cites ‘challenging circumstances’ involving family among reasons for trade request (external site)

    NBC Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Connor Hellebuyck

    Also reported by: Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site)

  2. Transaction

    Evander Kane Leaves Behind Questionable NHL Career, Signs With Russia (external site)

    The Hockey News - Edmonton Oilers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Evander Kane

  3. Injury

    Michal Postava Called Back Up To Red Wings Following John Gibson Injury (external site)

    The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: John Gibson, Michal Postava, Detroit Red Wings

    Also reported by: The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured