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Thu, Oct 8, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Wed, Oct 7 · results through Tue, Oct 6

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 84% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 84% in the West.

Biggest moves since Tue, Oct 6: New Jersey Devils −4, Philadelphia Flyers −4, Tampa Bay Lightning +4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes510684%+2
Ottawa Senators410582%−2
Tampa Bay Lightning410068%+4
Florida Panthers69758%+3
Buffalo Sabres49657%+2
New Jersey Devils29555%−4
Pittsburgh Penguins49452%−2
Montréal Canadiens39451%−3
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Columbus Blue Jackets29348%0
Washington Capitals29244%+1
Detroit Red Wings29142%+3
New York Rangers89140%+3
Philadelphia Flyers29039%−4
Boston Bruins49036%0
New York Islanders28831%−2
Toronto Maple Leafs48115%+1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights610584%+2
Colorado Avalanche410583%0
Edmonton Oilers510074%0
Minnesota Wild59970%0
Utah Mammoth69762%+3
Anaheim Ducks49662%0
Los Angeles Kings19558%−3
Dallas Stars29556%+3
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Winnipeg Jets59452%+2
St. Louis Blues29349%−3
Nashville Predators38835%0
San Jose Sharks48732%−2
Seattle Kraken48630%−3
Vancouver Canucks48219%0
Chicago Blackhawks28218%+1
Calgary Flames08117%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 8, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 12 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 11.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C12 points4 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Evan BouchardEDM · D11 points4 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Jack EichelVGK · C10 points4 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Leon DraisaitlEDM · C9 points4 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nick SchmaltzUTA · C7 points4 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Sabres Zucker Working His Way Back From Offseason Surgery (external site)

    The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Jason Zucker, Buffalo Sabres

  2. Injury

    Wild's Nick Foligno To Miss Next Two Games With Upper-Body Injury; Considered Day-To-Day (external site)

    The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Nick Foligno, Minnesota Wild

    Also reported by: The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports (external site)

  3. Lineup

    Maple Leafs Make Key Lineup Changes Ahead of Vegas Clash (external site)

    The Hockey News - Las Vegas Golden Knights via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured