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Wed, Oct 21, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Wed, Oct 21 · results through Tue, Oct 20

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 95% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 87% in the West.

Biggest moves since Tue, Oct 20: Anaheim Ducks −8, New York Islanders +6, Columbus Blue Jackets −5

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes1711395%+2
Tampa Bay Lightning1410276%+1
Ottawa Senators1210275%0
New Jersey Devils109866%+3
Florida Panthers129762%0
Boston Bruins159452%−2
New York Rangers159350%−1
Buffalo Sabres109450%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Montréal Canadiens109347%−2
Washington Capitals109143%−2
Detroit Red Wings99036%0
New York Islanders118934%+6
Pittsburgh Penguins78933%0
Columbus Blue Jackets68832%−5
Philadelphia Flyers78831%0
Toronto Maple Leafs128418%+2

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1610587%−1
Edmonton Oilers1510382%+1
Minnesota Wild1410380%+1
Colorado Avalanche1110278%−3
Utah Mammoth1410277%0
Dallas Stars119865%+4
St. Louis Blues99453%+2
Los Angeles Kings49148%+1
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Anaheim Ducks89145%−8
Winnipeg Jets109140%−3
Seattle Kraken138939%+2
Nashville Predators98936%0
San Jose Sharks118629%+4
Calgary Flames48220%0
Chicago Blackhawks68013%0
Vancouver Canucks5757%−2

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 21, 8:50 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 26 points, ahead of Auston Matthews at 18.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C26 points9 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Auston MatthewsTOR · C18 points11 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Evan BouchardEDM · D18 points9 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Jack EichelVGK · C18 points11 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Kirill KaprizovMIN · L17 points10 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Breaking Down Teams on Dylan Larkin’s Trade List That Could Actually Make a Deal Work (external site)

    The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings

    Also reported by: SB Nation via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports (external site)

  2. Rumour

    NHL Trade Rumors: Flyers Linked to Former 2nd Overall Pick (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Philadelphia Flyers

  3. Lineup

    Flames Call-Up Ben Jones Brings Hot Hand From Wranglers (external site)

    The Hockey News - Calgary Flames via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Ben Jones, Calgary Flames

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured