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Tue, Oct 27, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Mon, Oct 26 · results through Sun, Oct 25

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 96% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 88% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sun, Oct 25: Colorado Avalanche −5, Nashville Predators +5, New York Islanders −4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes2011396%0
Ottawa Senators1610276%0
New Jersey Devils1410275%0
Tampa Bay Lightning1510275%0
Boston Bruins199760%0
Florida Panthers149654%+3
Montréal Canadiens149552%+2
Washington Capitals129347%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Buffalo Sabres119241%0
New York Rangers159139%0
Pittsburgh Penguins119138%0
Detroit Red Wings119138%0
Columbus Blue Jackets88932%0
New York Islanders128728%−4
Philadelphia Flyers98626%0
Toronto Maple Leafs168724%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Minnesota Wild1810788%+3
Vegas Golden Knights1710487%0
Edmonton Oilers1710282%0
Utah Mammoth1610176%0
Colorado Avalanche1310074%−5
Dallas Stars1510073%+3
St. Louis Blues119351%−1
Anaheim Ducks109149%0
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Los Angeles Kings69046%0
Winnipeg Jets119038%−2
Seattle Kraken158837%0
Nashville Predators129037%+5
San Jose Sharks138528%0
Calgary Flames88322%0
Chicago Blackhawks6789%−2
Vancouver Canucks5714%−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 26, 9:06 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 33 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 23.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C33 points11 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Leon DraisaitlEDM · C23 points11 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Kirill KaprizovMIN · L21 points13 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Evan BouchardEDM · D21 points11 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C21 points12 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Flyers Strong Fit for Castaway Capitals 1st-Round Pick on NHL Trade Block (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Philadelphia Flyers, Washington Capitals

  2. Injury

    Former Avalanche Prospect Set to Miss 4-6 Weeks With Injury (external site)

    The Hockey News - Colorado Avalanche via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Colorado Avalanche, New York Islanders

  3. Transaction

    Canucks’ Most Recent Trade Acquisition Impressing In The AHL (external site)

    The Hockey News - Vancouver Canucks via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Jacob Quillan, Vancouver Canucks

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured