What the models see — not what happened
Where OddPuck disagrees with the standings — and what it expects to change.
How this is measuredThe model rates Boston Bruins 16 spots lower than the standings do
BOS finished #8 in points and rates #24 by xG-Elo · every club shown
Extreme finishing is projected to move back toward average
2025-26 goals above expected ● against what the model keeps for 2026-27 ○ at the same shot volume · 10 most extreme finishers
About these forecasts — projected finishing is not a result ›
The hollow marks are forecasts for next season at the same shot volume, not results. The share of a gap that survives is measured over five seasons of skaters clearing the same 100-attempt floor, which is why the projections land part of the way back rather than on zero. Shot volume itself is projected separately and is not part of this figure, and a persistent gap means the skater beats what this model expects — which may be finishing skill or may be shots the model under-rates, and the measurement cannot separate the two. How this is measured.
Final scores
Sun, Jun 14, 2026
Points leaders · projected totals over the remaining schedule
Full leaderboardTeam strength · xG-Elo
All 32
No games on the sheet for Thu, Aug 20, 2026. Here's the most recent slate with posted lines.
The latest sheetSat, Apr 11, 2026 · 15 games
Full sheet
Top six projected shot totals from that slate — sorted by projection, the way every sheet is.
NHL · Shots on goal
Distributions,
not picks.
OddPuck projects a full shots-on-goal distribution for every skater on the slate — P(SOG = k) against the book's posted line — from five seasons of play-by-play. No units, no plays of the day. You read the shape and draw your own conclusions.
The signature — P(SOG = k) vs the line
Bars right of the line clear it; each height is the modeled probability. Positional, never a verdict.