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Fri, Oct 16, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Fri, Oct 16 · results through Thu, Oct 15

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 94% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 87% in the West.

Biggest moves since Thu, Oct 15: New York Rangers −3, Philadelphia Flyers −3, St. Louis Blues −3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes1311294%0
Ottawa Senators1210379%+1
Tampa Bay Lightning1010172%+1
New Jersey Devils89762%+2
Florida Panthers109658%+1
Buffalo Sabres99553%+2
Montréal Canadiens79348%−2
Washington Capitals89246%+1
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
New York Rangers129246%−3
Pittsburgh Penguins79246%0
Boston Bruins109245%−1
Columbus Blue Jackets49144%+1
Detroit Red Wings69038%+2
New York Islanders78628%0
Philadelphia Flyers38626%−3
Toronto Maple Leafs88217%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1410687%+1
Colorado Avalanche910481%−1
Edmonton Oilers1110279%−2
Utah Mammoth1210172%+2
Minnesota Wild1110172%+2
Anaheim Ducks89661%0
St. Louis Blues79657%−3
Dallas Stars79657%+1
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Los Angeles Kings29351%0
Winnipeg Jets109245%−1
Seattle Kraken119040%0
Nashville Predators78833%−1
San Jose Sharks88423%+2
Calgary Flames28117%−2
Chicago Blackhawks68115%+1
Vancouver Canucks57811%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 16, 6:12 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 18 points, ahead of Jack Eichel at 16.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C18 points7 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Jack EichelVGK · C16 points9 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Evan BouchardEDM · D15 points7 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Kirill KaprizovMIN · L14 points8 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Sebastian AhoCAR · C13 points8 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Former Penguins Forward Signs With New Team For 20th NHL Season (external site)

    The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Pittsburgh Penguins

  2. Transaction

    A Look At The Bo Horvat Trade Tree After Canucks Part Ways With Final Piece (external site)

    The Hockey News - Vancouver Canucks via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Bo Horvat, New York Islanders, Vancouver Canucks

    Also reported by: The Hockey News - Vancouver Canucks via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Toronto Maple Leafs via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - New York Islanders via Yahoo Sports (external site), The Hockey News - Vancouver Canucks via Yahoo Sports (external site)

  3. Transaction

    Dallas Stars sign forward David Perron to one-year contract (external site)

    USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: David Perron, Dallas Stars

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured