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Sat, Oct 10, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

Live scores as of 5:30 PM ET; this page refreshes every minute while games are on.

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Sat, Oct 10 · results through Fri, Oct 9

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 89% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 86% in the West.

Biggest moves since Fri, Oct 9: Detroit Red Wings −4, Philadelphia Flyers +4, Utah Mammoth +4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes710889%+1
Ottawa Senators610379%−2
Tampa Bay Lightning610070%−1
Florida Panthers69760%+1
Buffalo Sabres49656%+1
New Jersey Devils29452%0
Columbus Blue Jackets49450%+2
Washington Capitals69349%+2
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Pittsburgh Penguins59347%0
Montréal Canadiens39347%+1
New York Rangers89142%−3
Detroit Red Wings29141%−4
Philadelphia Flyers29140%+4
Boston Bruins68934%−3
New York Islanders48730%0
Toronto Maple Leafs58014%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights810686%0
Colorado Avalanche610584%0
Edmonton Oilers710176%0
Utah Mammoth69866%+4
Anaheim Ducks69764%+2
Minnesota Wild59764%+1
Dallas Stars49660%0
Los Angeles Kings19455%0
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues39349%0
Winnipeg Jets79348%−4
Nashville Predators58937%−1
San Jose Sharks68732%−1
Seattle Kraken68630%+2
Vancouver Canucks48117%−1
Calgary Flames08016%0
Chicago Blackhawks28116%−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 10, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel are level at 12 points.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C12 points4 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Jack EichelVGK · C12 points5 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Evan BouchardEDM · D11 points4 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Leon DraisaitlEDM · C9 points4 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Kyle ConnorWPG · L8 points5 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Injury

    Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin out for the season with knee injury after fall against Capitals (external site)

    NBC Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Igor Shesterkin, New York Rangers, Washington Capitals

    Also reported by: Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site), NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site), NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site), NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site)

  2. Injury

    Flyers Announce Major Series of Injury Updates (external site)

    The Hockey News - Philadelphia Flyers via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Philadelphia Flyers

  3. Rumour

    NHL Rumors: 2 Canadiens Who Be Traded Next After Jayden Struble (external site)

    The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Jayden Struble, Montréal Canadiens

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured