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Tue, Oct 6, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Tue, Oct 6 · results through Mon, Oct 5

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Ottawa Senators at 84% in the East; Colorado Avalanche at 83% in the West.

Biggest moves since Mon, Oct 5: Philadelphia Flyers −16, San Jose Sharks −8, Florida Panthers +6

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Ottawa Senators410684%+3
Carolina Hurricanes310582%+2
Tampa Bay Lightning49864%+1
New Jersey Devils29759%+4
Florida Panthers49655%+6
Buffalo Sabres29655%+2
Pittsburgh Penguins49554%+2
Montréal Canadiens39554%+2
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Columbus Blue Jackets29348%−1
Washington Capitals29243%−2
Philadelphia Flyers29243%−16
Detroit Red Wings09039%−2
New York Rangers69037%+6
Boston Bruins49036%−5
New York Islanders28933%0
Toronto Maple Leafs28014%−1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Colorado Avalanche410583%0
Vegas Golden Knights410482%+3
Edmonton Oilers510074%+3
Minnesota Wild410070%+4
Anaheim Ducks49662%−2
Los Angeles Kings19661%+6
Utah Mammoth49659%+3
Dallas Stars29453%0
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues29452%+1
Winnipeg Jets59350%+3
Nashville Predators28835%−3
San Jose Sharks48834%−8
Seattle Kraken48733%0
Vancouver Canucks48219%−2
Calgary Flames08117%−2
Chicago Blackhawks08117%−3

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 6, 6:09 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 9 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 8.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C9 points3 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Evan BouchardEDM · D8 points3 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Paul CotterVAN · L6 points4 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Elias PetterssonVAN · C6 points4 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Jack EichelVGK · C6 points3 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Former Penguins Forward Placed On Waivers By New Team (external site)

    The Hockey News - Pittsburgh Penguins via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Pittsburgh Penguins

  2. Injury

    Montreal Canadiens Hit With Rough Ivan Demidov Injury News (external site)

    The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Ivan Demidov, Montréal Canadiens

  3. Injury

    Stützle Scores Twice as Senators Beat Bruins 4-1, But Now Face Another Key Injury Concern (external site)

    The Hockey News - Ottawa Senators via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Linus Ullmark, Tim Stützle, Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured