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Sat, Oct 31, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Fri, Oct 30 · results through Thu, Oct 29

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 96% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 90% in the West.

Biggest moves since Thu, Oct 29: Dallas Stars −7, Los Angeles Kings +7, Montréal Canadiens +7

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Carolina Hurricanes2411496%−1
Tampa Bay Lightning1710377%+2
New Jersey Devils1610174%−1
Ottawa Senators179966%−5
Montréal Canadiens189860%+7
Florida Panthers169757%−2
Washington Capitals169555%+3
Boston Bruins199553%−3
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Buffalo Sabres159549%+2
Detroit Red Wings159447%+4
New York Islanders169035%+5
Pittsburgh Penguins129033%−5
New York Rangers158933%−1
Columbus Blue Jackets108830%−2
Philadelphia Flyers108521%−1
Toronto Maple Leafs168416%−1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Vegas Golden Knights1910690%0
Minnesota Wild2110689%−1
Edmonton Oilers2010283%0
Colorado Avalanche1510281%+2
Utah Mammoth1810280%+6
Dallas Stars159663%−7
St. Louis Blues139353%+3
Los Angeles Kings109252%+7
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Seattle Kraken178942%+1
Anaheim Ducks118940%−4
Nashville Predators138834%−3
Winnipeg Jets118730%−4
Calgary Flames108424%0
San Jose Sharks158424%+1
Chicago Blackhawks8779%−2
Vancouver Canucks7735%0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 30, 8:56 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 36 points, ahead of Kirill Kaprizov at 24.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C36 points13 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Kirill KaprizovMIN · L24 points15 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Leon DraisaitlEDM · C24 points13 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Auston MatthewsTOR · C23 points15 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C22 points13 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Reigning MVP Nikita Kucherov requests trade from Lightning in latest NHL twist (external site)

    NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning

  2. Injury

    Connor Zary Undergoes Successful Knee Surgery, Listed Week-to-Week (external site)

    The Hockey News - Calgary Flames via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Connor Zary, Calgary Flames

  3. Injury

    Senators Call Up Two Forwards As Injury Problems Continue (external site)

    The Hockey News - Ottawa Senators via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Andre Burakovsky, Warren Foegele, Hayden Hodgson, Ottawa Senators

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured