Sun, Nov 1, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

1:00 PM ETWin chanceWPGWinnipeg Jets33%CARCarolina Hurricanes67%1:00 PMWinnipeg JetsWPG · 4–7–3Rated #23WPG 33%67% CARCarolina HurricanesCAR · 11–2–2Rated #1
3:30 PM ETWin chanceMINMinnesota Wild52%WSHWashington Capitals48%3:30 PMMinnesota WildMIN · 9–3–3Rated #2MIN 52%48% WSHWashington CapitalsWSH · 8–4–0Rated #17
4:00 PM ETWin chanceUTAUtah Mammoth51%PHIPhiladelphia Flyers49%4:00 PMUtah MammothUTA · 9–5–0Rated #8UTA 51%49% PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 3–8–4Rated #19
6:00 PM ETWin chanceEDMEdmonton Oilers45%NYRNew York Rangers55%6:00 PMEdmonton OilersEDM · 9–2–2Rated #10EDM 45%55% NYRNew York RangersNYR · 7–6–1Rated #24
8:00 PM ETWin chanceOTTOttawa Senators46%ANAAnaheim Ducks54%8:00 PMOttawa SenatorsOTT · 8–5–1Rated #6OTT 46%54% ANAAnaheim DucksANA · 5–7–1Rated #21

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Sat, Oct 31 · results through Fri, Oct 30

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 96% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 90% in the West.

Biggest moves since Fri, Oct 30: Florida Panthers +4, New Jersey Devils +4, Winnipeg Jets −4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	24	114	96%	0
New Jersey Devils	18	103	78%	+4
Tampa Bay Lightning	17	103	76%	−1
Ottawa Senators	17	100	66%	0
Florida Panthers	18	98	61%	+4
Montréal Canadiens	18	98	59%	−1
Washington Capitals	16	95	54%	−1
Boston Bruins	19	95	52%	−1

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Buffalo Sabres	15	95	48%	−1
Detroit Red Wings	15	94	46%	−1
New York Islanders	16	90	34%	−1
Pittsburgh Penguins	12	90	32%	−1
New York Rangers	15	89	32%	−1
Columbus Blue Jackets	10	88	29%	−1
Philadelphia Flyers	10	85	20%	−1
Toronto Maple Leafs	16	84	15%	−1

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Minnesota Wild	21	106	90%	+1
Vegas Golden Knights	19	104	88%	−2
Edmonton Oilers	20	102	84%	+1
Colorado Avalanche	15	102	81%	0
Utah Mammoth	18	102	81%	+1
Dallas Stars	15	96	64%	+1
St. Louis Blues	13	93	54%	+1
Los Angeles Kings	10	92	53%	+1

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Anaheim Ducks	11	89	41%	+1
Seattle Kraken	17	89	40%	−2
Nashville Predators	13	88	35%	+1
Winnipeg Jets	11	85	26%	−4
Calgary Flames	12	84	26%	+2
San Jose Sharks	15	84	25%	+1
Chicago Blackhawks	8	77	9%	0
Vancouver Canucks	7	73	5%	0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 31, 8:51 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 36 points, ahead of Kirill Kaprizov at 24.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Rumour
Lightning teammates address Nikita Kucherov trade request: 'Tough day' (external site)
USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports · Nov 1, 12:55 AM ET
In this story: Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning
Also reported by: The Hockey News - Toronto Maple Leafs via Yahoo Sports (external site), Yahoo Sports (external site), Associated Press via Yahoo Sports (external site)
Lineup
St. Louis Blues Assign Quinton Burns To The AHL (external site)
The Hockey News - St. Louis Blues via Yahoo Sports · Oct 31, 10:04 PM ET
In this story: St. Louis Blues
Injury
Sharks Outcoached and Outplayed Once Again, Fall to Injury-Riddled Senators (external site)
The Hockey News - San Jose Sharks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 31, 6:43 PM ET
In this story: Ottawa Senators, San Jose Sharks, Vancouver Canucks

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured