Tue, Oct 13, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

6:00 PM ETWin chanceNJDNew Jersey Devils41%DETDetroit Red Wings59%6:00 PMNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 2–3–0 · 2025-26: 42–37–3Rated #10NJD 41%59% DETDetroit Red WingsDET · 1–3–1 · 2025-26: 41–31–10Rated #17
6:15 PM ETWin chanceFLAFlorida Panthers41%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets59%6:15 PMFlorida PanthersFLA · 2–2–2 · 2025-26: 40–38–4Rated #15FLA 41%59% CBJColumbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 2–2–0 · 2025-26: 40–30–12Rated #14
6:30 PM ETWin chanceBUFBuffalo Sabres42%MTLMontréal Canadiens58%6:30 PMBuffalo SabresBUF · 3–3–0 · 2025-26: 50–23–9Rated #11BUF 42%58% MTLMontréal CanadiensMTL · 2–2–1 · 2025-26: 48–24–10Rated #18
6:45 PM ETWin chanceWSHWashington Capitals35%CARCarolina Hurricanes65%6:45 PMWashington CapitalsWSH · 3–2–0 · 2025-26: 43–30–9Rated #21WSH 35%65% CARCarolina HurricanesCAR · 5–1–1 · 2025-26: 53–22–7Rated #1
7:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken43%PHIPhiladelphia Flyers57%7:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 4–2–0 · 2025-26: 34–37–11Rated #27SEA 43%57% PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 0–5–2 · 2025-26: 43–27–12Rated #20
7:15 PM ETWin chanceTBLTampa Bay Lightning52%NYRNew York Rangers48%7:15 PMTampa Bay LightningTBL · 4–1–0 · 2025-26: 50–26–6Rated #5TBL 52%48% NYRNew York RangersNYR · 5–2–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #23
7:30 PM ETWin chanceSTLSt. Louis Blues46%OTTOttawa Senators54%7:30 PMSt. Louis BluesSTL · 2–2–1 · 2025-26: 37–33–12Rated #16STL 46%54% OTTOttawa SenatorsOTT · 5–1–0 · 2025-26: 44–27–11Rated #4
7:45 PM ETWin chanceVANVancouver Canucks41%NYINew York Islanders59%7:45 PMVancouver CanucksVAN · 2–5–0 · 2025-26: 25–49–8Rated #32VAN 41%59% NYINew York IslandersNYI · 2–3–0 · 2025-26: 43–34–5Rated #26
8:00 PM ETWin chancePITPittsburgh Penguins52%CHIChicago Blackhawks48%8:00 PMPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 3–2–1 · 2025-26: 41–25–16Rated #19PIT 52%48% CHIChicago BlackhawksCHI · 1–5–0 · 2025-26: 29–39–14Rated #30
8:15 PM ETWin chanceMINMinnesota Wild45%WPGWinnipeg Jets55%8:15 PMMinnesota WildMIN · 4–1–1 · 2025-26: 46–24–12Rated #7MIN 45%55% WPGWinnipeg JetsWPG · 3–1–1 · 2025-26: 35–35–12Rated #22
8:30 PM ETWin chanceCOLColorado Avalanche50%DALDallas Stars50%8:30 PMColorado AvalancheCOL · 3–2–0 · 2025-26: 55–16–11Rated #3COL 50%50% DALDallas StarsDAL · 2–2–1 · 2025-26: 50–20–12Rated #9
8:45 PM ETWin chanceVGKVegas Golden Knights49%NSHNashville Predators51%8:45 PMVegas Golden KnightsVGK · 5–2–0 · 2025-26: 39–26–17Rated #2VGK 49%51% NSHNashville PredatorsNSH · 2–1–2 · 2025-26: 38–34–10Rated #25
9:00 PM ETWin chanceTORToronto Maple Leafs35%UTAUtah Mammoth65%9:00 PMToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 3–2–1 · 2025-26: 32–36–14Rated #31TOR 35%65% UTAUtah MammothUTA · 4–2–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #8
9:45 PM ETWin chanceCGYCalgary Flames39%ANAAnaheim Ducks61%9:45 PMCalgary FlamesCGY · 0–5–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #29CGY 39%61% ANAAnaheim DucksANA · 4–1–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #13
10:30 PM ETWin chanceEDMEdmonton Oilers48%LAKLos Angeles Kings52%10:30 PMEdmonton OilersEDM · 4–0–1 · 2025-26: 41–30–11Rated #6EDM 48%52% LAKLos Angeles KingsLAK · 0–2–2 · 2025-26: 35–27–20Rated #12
11:00 PM ETWin chanceBOSBoston Bruins49%SJSSan Jose Sharks51%11:00 PMBoston BruinsBOS · 4–2–0 · 2025-26: 45–27–10Rated #24BOS 49%51% SJSSan Jose SharksSJS · 3–2–0 · 2025-26: 39–35–8Rated #28

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Tue, Oct 13 · results through Mon, Oct 12

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 93% in the East; Vegas Golden Knights at 86% in the West.

Biggest moves since Mon, Oct 12: Florida Panthers −3, Minnesota Wild +3, New Jersey Devils −3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	11	111	93%	+1
Ottawa Senators	10	105	83%	+3
Tampa Bay Lightning	8	101	74%	0
New Jersey Devils	4	94	53%	−3
Buffalo Sabres	6	94	52%	+2
Florida Panthers	6	94	51%	−3
Columbus Blue Jackets	4	93	49%	+1
Montréal Canadiens	5	93	49%	0

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Pittsburgh Penguins	7	93	49%	+1
Washington Capitals	6	92	46%	−3
New York Rangers	10	92	45%	+2
Detroit Red Wings	3	91	41%	0
Boston Bruins	8	91	41%	+1
Philadelphia Flyers	2	87	30%	−2
New York Islanders	4	86	27%	0
Toronto Maple Leafs	7	82	17%	0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Vegas Golden Knights	10	106	86%	−1
Colorado Avalanche	6	103	80%	0
Edmonton Oilers	9	103	80%	0
Utah Mammoth	8	100	71%	0
Minnesota Wild	9	100	71%	+3
Anaheim Ducks	8	99	69%	0
Dallas Stars	5	96	58%	0
Los Angeles Kings	2	94	53%	−1

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
St. Louis Blues	5	94	53%	0
Winnipeg Jets	7	91	43%	−1
Nashville Predators	6	90	37%	0
Seattle Kraken	8	89	37%	+3
San Jose Sharks	6	85	25%	0
Calgary Flames	0	79	14%	0
Chicago Blackhawks	2	80	13%	0
Vancouver Canucks	4	79	12%	−1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 13, 6:11 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 13 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 12.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Injury
Buffalo Sabres At Montreal Canadiens - Lineups, Injury Updates, And Game Notes (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 13, 3:19 PM ET
In this story: Buffalo Sabres, Montréal Canadiens
Lineup
Devils Recall Former Senators First-Round Pick After Brief Stint In Minors (external site)
The Hockey News - Ottawa Senators via Yahoo Sports · Oct 13, 2:47 PM ET
In this story: Stefan Noesen, New Jersey Devils, Ottawa Senators
Injury
Wild Place Nico Sturm On Injured Reserve Following Head Injury, Recall Justin Kirkland (external site)
The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports · Oct 13, 12:44 PM ET
In this story: Justin Kirkland, Nico Sturm, Minnesota Wild
Also reported by: The Hockey News - Minnesota Wild via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured