Sat, Oct 3, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:00 PM ETWin chanceCHIChicago Blackhawks39%BUFBuffalo Sabres61%7:00 PMChicago BlackhawksCHI · 0–2–0 · 2025-26: 29–39–14Rated #30CHI 39%61% BUFBuffalo SabresBUF · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 50–23–9Rated #11
7:00 PM ETWin chanceOTTOttawa Senators58%TORToronto Maple Leafs42%7:00 PMOttawa SenatorsOTT · 0–0–0 · 2025-26: 44–27–11Rated #2OTT 58%42% TORToronto Maple LeafsTOR · 1–1–0 · 2025-26: 32–36–14Rated #31
7:00 PM ETWin chanceWSHWashington Capitals41%TBLTampa Bay Lightning59%7:00 PMWashington CapitalsWSH · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 43–30–9Rated #22WSH 41%59% TBLTampa Bay LightningTBL · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 50–26–6Rated #6
7:00 PM ETWin chanceCARCarolina Hurricanes49%PHIPhiladelphia Flyers51%7:00 PMCarolina HurricanesCAR · 0–1–1 · 2025-26: 53–22–7Rated #1CAR 49%51% PHIPhiladelphia FlyersPHI · 0–1–1 · 2025-26: 43–27–12Rated #5
7:00 PM ETWin chanceMTLMontréal Canadiens45%PITPittsburgh Penguins55%7:00 PMMontréal CanadiensMTL · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 48–24–10Rated #18MTL 45%55% PITPittsburgh PenguinsPIT · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 41–25–16Rated #14
7:00 PM ETWin chanceUTAUtah Mammoth45%CBJColumbus Blue Jackets55%7:00 PMUtah MammothUTA · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 43–33–6Rated #12UTA 45%55% CBJColumbus Blue JacketsCBJ · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 40–30–12Rated #13
7:00 PM ETWin chanceSEASeattle Kraken38%EDMEdmonton Oilers62%7:00 PMSeattle KrakenSEA · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 34–37–11Rated #28SEA 38%62% EDMEdmonton OilersEDM · 1–0–1 · 2025-26: 41–30–11Rated #7
7:30 PM ETWin chanceNJDNew Jersey Devils49%NYINew York Islanders51%7:30 PMNew Jersey DevilsNJD · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 42–37–3Rated #9NJD 49%51% NYINew York IslandersNYI · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 43–34–5Rated #25
8:00 PM ETWin chanceDALDallas Stars49%NSHNashville Predators51%8:00 PMDallas StarsDAL · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 50–20–12Rated #10DAL 49%51% NSHNashville PredatorsNSH · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 38–34–10Rated #23
8:00 PM ETWin chanceBOSBoston Bruins41%MINMinnesota Wild59%8:00 PMBoston BruinsBOS · 2–0–0 · 2025-26: 45–27–10Rated #24BOS 41%59% MINMinnesota WildMIN · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 46–24–12Rated #8
9:00 PM ETWin chanceSTLSt. Louis Blues39%COLColorado Avalanche61%9:00 PMSt. Louis BluesSTL · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 37–33–12Rated #20STL 39%61% COLColorado AvalancheCOL · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 55–16–11Rated #3
10:00 PM ETWin chanceCGYCalgary Flames46%VANVancouver Canucks54%10:00 PMCalgary FlamesCGY · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 34–39–9Rated #29CGY 46%54% VANVancouver CanucksVAN · 1–1–0 · 2025-26: 25–49–8Rated #32
10:00 PM ETWin chanceLAKLos Angeles Kings49%SJSSan Jose Sharks51%10:00 PMLos Angeles KingsLAK · 0–1–0 · 2025-26: 35–27–20Rated #15LAK 49%51% SJSSan Jose SharksSJS · 1–0–0 · 2025-26: 39–35–8Rated #26

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Sat, Oct 3 · results through Fri, Oct 2

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Ottawa Senators at 79% in the East; Colorado Avalanche at 82% in the West.

Biggest moves since Fri, Oct 2: Detroit Red Wings −4, Anaheim Ducks +3, Carolina Hurricanes −3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Ottawa Senators	0	104	79%	0
Carolina Hurricanes	1	104	78%	−3
Tampa Bay Lightning	0	97	61%	0
Philadelphia Flyers	1	97	60%	0
New Jersey Devils	2	97	58%	0
Columbus Blue Jackets	2	95	53%	0
Montréal Canadiens	2	95	52%	0
Buffalo Sabres	0	94	51%	0

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Florida Panthers	3	94	49%	0
Pittsburgh Penguins	2	94	49%	0
Washington Capitals	2	93	47%	+3
Detroit Red Wings	0	92	44%	−4
Boston Bruins	4	92	43%	+2
New York Islanders	0	88	30%	−1
New York Rangers	4	87	29%	+3
Toronto Maple Leafs	2	82	17%	0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Colorado Avalanche	2	104	82%	0
Vegas Golden Knights	2	102	77%	−3
Edmonton Oilers	3	99	70%	0
Minnesota Wild	2	97	64%	0
Anaheim Ducks	2	96	62%	+3
Dallas Stars	0	95	57%	−3
Utah Mammoth	2	95	57%	+1
Los Angeles Kings	0	94	56%	0

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
St. Louis Blues	2	94	54%	+3
Winnipeg Jets	1	91	44%	−1
San Jose Sharks	2	89	40%	0
Nashville Predators	0	88	36%	+1
Seattle Kraken	2	87	34%	0
Calgary Flames	0	84	24%	0
Chicago Blackhawks	0	83	22%	0
Vancouver Canucks	2	83	22%	0

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 3, 6:08 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Evan Bouchard leads with 8 points, ahead of Connor McDavid at 7.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Injury
Aleksander Barkov injury update as Panthers captain goes on injured list (external site)
USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports · Oct 3, 2:35 PM ET
In this story: Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Also reported by: USA TODAY Sports via Yahoo Sports (external site)
Lineup
Blackhawks Vs Sabres: Projected Lineup, How To Watch, & More Ahead Of Game 3 (external site)
The Hockey News - Chicago Blackhawks via Yahoo Sports · Oct 3, 1:22 PM ET
In this story: Buffalo Sabres, Chicago Blackhawks
Lineup
Buffalo Sabres Vs. Chicago Blackhawks - Lineups And Game Notes (external site)
The Hockey News - Buffalo Sabres via Yahoo Sports · Oct 3, 10:10 AM ET
In this story: Buffalo Sabres, Chicago Blackhawks

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Mackie Samoskevich−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Tomas Hertl−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.8 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+13.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured