Wed, Nov 4, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

7:30 PM ETWin chanceOTTOttawa Senators49%BUFBuffalo Sabres51%7:30 PMOttawa SenatorsOTT · 9–6–1Rated #5OTT 49%51% BUFBuffalo SabresBUF · 7–4–3Rated #12
7:30 PM ETWin chanceCHIChicago Blackhawks37%FLAFlorida Panthers63%7:30 PMChicago BlackhawksCHI · 4–10–1Rated #30CHI 37%63% FLAFlorida PanthersFLA · 8–5–2Rated #10
10:00 PM ETWin chanceSJSSan Jose Sharks38%LAKLos Angeles Kings62%10:00 PMSan Jose SharksSJS · 7–8–1Rated #31SJS 38%62% LAKLos Angeles KingsLAK · 4–7–2Rated #13
10:00 PM ETWin chanceCGYCalgary Flames45%SEASeattle Kraken55%10:00 PMCalgary FlamesCGY · 7–8–0Rated #28CGY 45%55% SEASeattle KrakenSEA · 8–5–1Rated #27

xG: Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo: A team rating built on xG margin, not results. “Rated #” is a club’s rank on it.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (AUC 0.600, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect). That figure is measured on 2025-26, the season the rest adjustment was first seen in, so it describes that season rather than testing the model on games it had not seen.

2026-27 · updated Tue, Nov 3 · results through Mon, Nov 2

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Carolina Hurricanes at 97% in the East; Minnesota Wild at 91% in the West.

Biggest moves since Mon, Nov 2: Florida Panthers −6, Boston Bruins +4, Detroit Red Wings +4

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Carolina Hurricanes	26	115	97%	0
New Jersey Devils	18	103	80%	0
Tampa Bay Lightning	18	103	75%	0
Ottawa Senators	19	100	70%	0
Montréal Canadiens	20	98	60%	0
Boston Bruins	23	97	57%	+4
Florida Panthers	18	97	56%	−6
Buffalo Sabres	17	95	51%	−1

Show all 16 Eastern clubs

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Washington Capitals	16	94	50%	0
Detroit Red Wings	17	94	44%	+4
Pittsburgh Penguins	12	89	33%	0
New York Islanders	16	89	30%	0
New York Rangers	15	88	28%	0
Columbus Blue Jackets	10	87	27%	0
Philadelphia Flyers	12	86	23%	0
Toronto Maple Leafs	18	85	19%	0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Minnesota Wild	23	107	91%	0
Edmonton Oilers	24	105	89%	0
Vegas Golden Knights	20	104	88%	0
Colorado Avalanche	19	104	85%	+3
Utah Mammoth	18	101	78%	0
Dallas Stars	17	97	65%	0
St. Louis Blues	15	95	59%	0
Los Angeles Kings	10	91	49%	0

Show all 16 Western clubs

Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
Club		Proj	Playoffs	Day
Anaheim Ducks	13	89	44%	0
Seattle Kraken	17	89	40%	0
Nashville Predators	15	89	38%	0
Calgary Flames	14	84	25%	+2
Winnipeg Jets	11	84	22%	0
San Jose Sharks	15	81	16%	−3
Chicago Blackhawks	9	76	7%	−2
Vancouver Canucks	7	71	4%	+1

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Nov 3, 8:01 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 39 points, ahead of Leon Draisaitl at 28.

Leaders in

Points Goals Shots Hits

Figures

Totals Projected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

Rumour
Matt Rempe focused on rare Rangers chances as trade rumor lingers (external site)
NY Post Sports via Yahoo Sports · Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET
In this story: Matt Rempe, New York Rangers
Injury
Red Wings Goaltender John Gibson Exits Lightning Tilt With Lower-Body Injury (external site)
The Hockey News - Detroit Red Wings via Yahoo Sports · Nov 3, 8:18 PM ET
In this story: John Gibson, Detroit Red Wings, Tampa Bay Lightning
Transaction
Why The Vancouver Canucks Should Consider Claiming Brad Lambert Off Waivers (external site)
The Hockey News - Vancouver Canucks via Yahoo Sports · Nov 3, 6:45 PM ET
In this story: Brad Lambert, Vancouver Canucks, Winnipeg Jets
Also reported by: The Hockey News - Winnipeg Jets via Yahoo Sports (external site)

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result

Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured