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Mon, Oct 5, 2026

Tonight

Scores, player projections and model analysis, graded on results. How to read it

xG
Expected goals: the model’s chance that each shot attempt scores, added up.
xG-Elo
A team rating built on xG margin, not results.

Win chance is the model’s projection, not a betting recommendation. Its accuracy is modest (held-out AUC 0.590, on a scale where 0.5 is a coin flip and 1.0 is perfect).

2026-27 · updated Mon, Oct 5 · results through Sun, Oct 4

Playoff odds

How these odds are worked out

Best chances: Ottawa Senators at 81% in the East; Colorado Avalanche at 83% in the West.

Biggest moves since Sun, Oct 4: Utah Mammoth −4, Calgary Flames −3, Detroit Red Wings −3

Eastern Conference

Playoff chances, Eastern Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Ottawa Senators210581%0
Carolina Hurricanes310580%0
Tampa Bay Lightning29863%0
Philadelphia Flyers29759%0
New Jersey Devils29655%0
Buffalo Sabres29553%0
Montréal Canadiens39552%0
Pittsburgh Penguins49552%0
Show all 16 Eastern clubs
Playoff chances, Eastern Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Florida Panthers49449%0
Columbus Blue Jackets29449%0
Washington Capitals29245%0
Boston Bruins49141%0
Detroit Red Wings09141%−3
New York Islanders28933%0
New York Rangers68831%+2
Toronto Maple Leafs28115%0

Western Conference

Playoff chances, Western Conference
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
Colorado Avalanche410583%0
Vegas Golden Knights410279%+2
Edmonton Oilers59971%0
Minnesota Wild49866%0
Anaheim Ducks49764%+2
Utah Mammoth49556%−4
Los Angeles Kings19455%−1
Dallas Stars09453%0
Show all 16 Western clubs
Playoff chances, Western Conference, the other 8 clubs
ClubProjPlayoffsDay
St. Louis Blues29351%−1
Winnipeg Jets39247%+3
San Jose Sharks49042%0
Nashville Predators28938%0
Seattle Kraken48733%+2
Vancouver Canucks48321%−2
Chicago Blackhawks08220%0
Calgary Flames08219%−3

2026-27 regular-season totals

League leaders

Totals as of Oct 5, 6:08 AM ET · updated each morning, so tonight’s games are not in them

Connor McDavid leads with 9 points, ahead of Evan Bouchard at 8.

Leaders in
PointsGoalsShots Shots on goalHits
Figures
TotalsProjected

Bold games: under 41. Early totals rest on few games, and the order can change night to night.

  1. 1Connor McDavidEDM · C9 points3 games (limited sample)
  2. 2Evan BouchardEDM · D8 points3 games (limited sample)
  3. 3Paul CotterVAN · L6 points4 games (limited sample)
  4. 4Elias PetterssonVAN · C6 points4 games (limited sample)
  5. 5Jack EichelVGK · C6 points3 games (limited sample)
How the leaders are counted — totals from the 2026-27 regular season, beside the games each player has played

A total counts every regular-season game the player has dressed for. Each bar is drawn against the leader’s total, so the longest bar is the first row.

Injuries, lineups, transactions and rumours · newest first

News

Headlines from other outlets, shown as published, each linking to the full report.

  1. Transaction

    Could Winnipeg Consider Adding Former First Round Pick Off Waivers? (external site)

    The Hockey News - Winnipeg Jets via Yahoo Sports ·

  2. Transaction

    Calgary Flames Place Connor Zary on Waivers (external site)

    The Hockey News - Calgary Flames via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Connor Zary, Calgary Flames

  3. Injury

    Former Montreal Canadiens Exits Rangers Game With Injury (external site)

    The Hockey News - Montreal Canadiens via Yahoo Sports ·

    In this story: Montréal Canadiens, New York Rangers

All NHL news

What the model sees — not what happened

The model expects extreme finishers to move back toward average

Goals relative to each player’s position: 2025-26 beside the 2026-27 projection.

What happened, 2025-26Projected for 2026-27, not a result
  • Tomas Hertl−8.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Mackie Samoskevich−8.6 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Andrew Copp−8.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.6 in 2026-27
  • Timo Meier−10.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −1.9 in 2026-27
  • Anders Lee−11.5 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected −2.1 in 2026-27
  • Cole Caufield+12.8 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.3 in 2026-27
  • Macklin Celebrini+13.3 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.4 in 2026-27
  • Filip Forsberg+14.1 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.5 in 2026-27
  • Morgan Geekie+14.9 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.7 in 2026-27
  • Anthony Mantha+15.4 goals relative to his position in 2025-26, projected +2.8 in 2026-27

Both ends use the position’s rate rather than raw goals minus xG, and the projection assumes the same shot volume. A gap that persists may be finishing skill or shots the model under-rates. How this is measured